AR: El Castillo Resource Update and Q410 Production

JOHN MCCLINTOCK, Mackie Research (01/11/2011)
"Argonaut announced its updated resource estimate and Q410 production numbers from its flagship El Castillo mine in Durango, Mexico. . .El Castillo resource update and Q410 production exceed our estimates. We had expected Argonaut would grow its global resource from 1.2 Moz. Au to 2.1 Moz., inclusive of 530 Koz. Au of reserves, vs. the global resource of 2.3 Moz. Au, inclusive of 645 Koz. Au of reserves reported.

The company also reported record Q410 production of 18,292 oz. Au (but did not give cost guidance) vs. our expectation of 14,700 oz. at total cash costs of US$600/oz. However, we now expect total cash costs of US$552/oz. after adjusting for Q410 production results. . .Due to increasing our 2011 production estimates, our target price changes slightly upwards to $10.30 (was $10.25) based on 1.0x (no change) estimated NAVPS of $10.30 (was $10.25)."

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