Fortuna: Sterling Pick

MATTHEW O'KEEFE, Cormark Securities Inc. (01/10/2011)

"We are reinstating coverage on Fortuna Silver following the closing of the CAD$46M bought-deal financing in which Cormark was a syndicate member. Fortuna Silver offers investors exposure to a high-quality junior producer with a rapidly growing production profile. Its primary producing asset is the Caylloma silver/lead/zinc mine in Peru, which is producing a +1.8 Moz. silver per year. Its secondary asset is the San Jose silver/gold project in Mexico that is on track for production later this year and should add ~3 Moz. Ag Eq. per year. Following our price deck revision, our 2011E CFPS estimate increases to $0.53 from $0.40 while our NAVPS estimate increases to CAD$4.14 from CAD$3.15. With strong growth from San Jose expected to come online by the end of the year anchored by steady, low-cost production at Caylloma, we are adjusting our target multiples to 1.5x NAV and 10.0x 2012E CFPS from 1.2x NAV and 12.0x our 2011E CFPS estimate, which is in line with other silver producers. As a result, we are increasing our target to CAD$6.00 from CAD$4.50 and maintaining our Buy recommendation."

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