Production in Line

JOHANN STEYN, Citigrouup Global Markets (01/10/2011)
"GFI today announced its production and cost guidance for the December 2010 quarter (Q211). It is guiding production of 900,000 ounces. . .in line with expectations. . .We expect GFI to deliver a 22% QOQ increase in HEPS to 175c for Q211 (gold price: $1,370/oz.). We expect GFI to declare a dividend of 110c, representing a 2.9x cover. . .Current buoyant gold price environment and temporary cost stabilization (from a high base) have provided support for GFI's share price. . .We rate GFI Medium Risk. Our valuation of GFI is exposed to macroeconomic developments affecting the gold price and exchange rates, operational risks that might affect volumes and input costs and political risks that might affect costs and the company's reputation. Upside risks to our view include a significant reduction in GFI's medium-term capital requirements. Other upside risks include a higher-than-expected gold price and weaker-than-expected operating currencies (ZAR, AUD)."

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