AR Makes a Deal

JOHN MCCLINTOCK, Mackie Research (10/20/2010)
"AR has announced an all share deal to acquired Pediment Gold for CAD$137.1 mm or CAD$2.56/share based on an exchange ratio of (AR) 0.625 : 1.00 (PEZ) shares. AR is paying a fair price for PEZ. AR is paying US$75/oz Au for PEZ's M&I resource versus a peer average of US$66/oz Au, and it could be argued to be on the high end of the take-out range. However, AR will now have two operations producing 177 Koz. Au at total cash costs of US$473/oz Au by 2013, and trades at 0.6x NAVPS versus historic peer average of 1.0x NAVPS.

VALUATION—Increases: After adding San Antonio and La Colorada to our estimates, our NAVPS changes to CAD$6.22 (was C$5.85). We value AR based on 1.0x (no change) our CAD$6.22 NAVPS to derive our target price of US$6.20 (up from $5.85).

CATALYST—New El Castillo Resource Estimate: We continue to see an increase of the El Castillo resource from 1.3 Moz. to 2.1 Moz. by Q111 as the key catalyst for AR."

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