RBY: Forecasting Phoenix

BARRY COOPER, CIBC World Markets (05/19/2010)
"As of May 19, we are initiating coverage of Rubicon with a Sector Underperformer rating and a 12- to 18-month price target of $4.00, which incorporates a 50% increase to current resources that we have calculated, coupled with our 2011 gold price forecast of US$1,400/oz.

The Phoenix project is located in the exciting high-grade gold belt of Red Lake, offering investors exposure to unique geological settings for gold occurring in above-average concentrations. Thus far, we estimate that the average grade of the F2 Zone is 11.3 g/t, but it could be higher.

Mining parameters are often overlooked in the exploration phase of the life cycle for mining stocks. Despite the high grade, we believe costs for production may be reasonably high for both operating and capital. This puts valuation multiples for Rubicon above others in similar circumstances.

With a drill campaign that is larger than all historical work completed to date, information flow will be steady. We suspect that additional ounces will be added, however we believe resources that are 50% more than our estimate of 1.9 million oz. are already priced into the shares."

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