FVI: Byproduct Production Increases at Caylloma

NICHOLAS CAMPBELL, Canaccord Genuity (01/19/2010)
"FVI reported 2009 production of 1,685,000 ounces of silver, 28.4 million pounds of zinc and 25.1 million pounds of lead, in line with our expectations. For 2010, the company is guiding for production of 1.7 million ounces of silver, 28.4 million pounds of zinc and 25.2 million pounds of lead and 1.0 million pounds of copper. While the company's expected silver production from Caylloma is in line with our expectations, zinc, lead and copper production are 7%, 33% and 11% higher, respectively, than our previous forecasts. In 2010, we had expected to see base metal grades drop off at Caylloma, resulting in lower zinc and lead byproduct production from the mine. We note that FVI is trading at 3.8x 2012E CFPS and 0.74x P/NAV (5%, spot) while its peer group averages 10.3x to 2011E CFPS and 1.10x P/NAV (5%, spot).

We have adjusted our model to reflect higher zinc and lead byproduct production in 2010 from the Caylloma mine. The net result is an increase in our 2010E CFPS to US$0.38, up from US$0.28 previously, and a marginally positive impact to our estimate of NAVPS. We continue to value the shares of FVI based on a 1.0x multiple to our peak silver and gold price NAVPS (US$21.50/oz Ag and US$1300/oz Au) of C$4.77. We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation of Fortuna Silver with a target price of C$4.75 per share."

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