Stifel Nicolaus Initiates Coverage of Atlas

AMIR ARIF, Stifel Nicolaus (10/26/2009)
"We are initiating coverage on ATLS with a Buy rating and $40 target price reflecting a slight discount to our DCF driven NAV and 12.5x 2010 EV/EBITDA.

ATN/ATLS consolidation to benefit meaningfully. The recent consolidation of ATN into ATLS reduces structural complexity, improves internal funding sources (no MLP distributions), opens up better external funding opportunities (easier to place C-corp equity versus MLP or holding company stock, easier to term out debt without cash flow distributions), and provides a more direct avenue for institutional investors to own ATLS's SWPA Marcellus holdings.

Acceleration in drilling activity likely key driver in narrowing discount to our estimated $40/share NAV. As horizontal Marcellus drilling activity increases from 15 wells in 2009 to 30 wells in 2010 and these wells are drilled outside of its existing drilling partnership business, we believe net production growth will accelerate meaningfully and additional drilling data points will help narrow the gap between the stock price and our NAV given the undeveloped nature of the Marcellus."

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