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F2 Keeps Getting Stronger; Raising Estimates
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ANDREW MIKITCHOOK, GMP Securities
(10/05/2009)
What's New Rubicon announced on September 14 a high-grade extension to its F2 Zone on the 100%-owned Phoenix property in Red Lake. Drill hole 122-10 intercepted 0.4oz/t over 147 feet, including two higher grade sections with 3.25 oz/t over 6.6 feet, and 3.82oz/t over 4.9 feet. Rubicon’s ongoing progress with delineating the high-grade lenses within F2 gives us sufficient confidence to switch our valuation to a DCF based methodology and we are increasing our price target to US$5.50 (from US$4.00). Why it Matters The new intercepts continue a trend at F2 of identifying high-grade lenses both in the main F2 core and also in sub-parallel structures such as the drill holes on September 14. Based on these consistent high-grade intercepts, we have modeled our DCF valuation at 1oz/t grade for 4mnoz – conservatively below the 1-2+oz/t grades being mined at Goldcorp's Red Lake mine. We expect the detailed underground drilling from the 122 level to continue delivering high-grade intercepts and the exploration drift to be completed in 1H10 should allow test mining through the F2 zone. Valuation & Recommendation Our revised valuation methodology drives an increased 12-month target price of US$5.50 (from US$4.00). With a current estimated treasury of $60mn, Rubicon remains well funded to continue the current 80,000m drilling campaign while advancing shaft deepening that now stands at 175m. In our opinion, this remains a unique, advanced and high-grade asset that will continue to gain market attention—we reiterate our Overweight rating. |
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