Canaccord Increases Target on Copper Mountain

WENDELL ZERB, B.SC., P. GEOL., Canaccord Genuity (09/29/2009)
"We have reviewed our outlook for base metal prices. Our short- and longer-term view of the copper price has improved, with long-term prices increasing to US$2.00/lb from US$1.75/lb. In other news Copper Mountain recently completed an equity financing for gross proceeds of C$50 million.

An improved metal price outlook has an overall positive impact on our valuation of Copper Mountain. We also note that financing risk related to Copper Mountain's Similco asset has improved dramatically with the consummation of the Copper Mountain and Mitsubishi MOU and the recently closed $50 million equity financing. Negative to our overall valuation is our stronger outlook for the Canadian dollar, which we have averaging 0.95 to the U.S. dollar in the next three years. We are optimistic that the Similco project is still on track for initial production in H2/11.

Our total undiscounted NAV (10%) for CUM (75% interest in Similco) is now US$425.6 million. We are increasing our 12-month target price to C$3.00 (rounded) (was C$2.50), based on a 0.70x risk multiple to our 10% NPV for Similco. We are maintaining our SPECULATIVE BUY rating. Based on 3x our estimated attributable operating CFPS (average 2011–2013), Copper Mountain could command a value of C$3.54/share."

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