Goldcorp Reports Strong Q1/09 Results

STEVEN BUTLER, Canaccord Genuity (05/11/2009)
"Goldcorp reported much better-than-expected Q1/09 results as adjusted EPS of $0.23 surpassed our estimate (and consensus) of $0.13. Production and lower costs ($0.04) and a much lower effective tax rate of 13% versus our estimate of 40% ($0.06) were attributable for the variance to our estimates. Production was 616,500 oz (commercial production of 600,100 oz) at $288/oz versus our estimate of 552,000 oz at $359/oz (net of copper credits). The variance was due to higher production, higher realized copper price and lower royalties at Alumbrera, and higher production grades at El Sauzal and Porcupine.

Our 2009 production estimate has been revised to 2.313 Moz at cash costs of $338/oz (from 2.265 Moz at $359/oz) primarily reflecting the higher production and lower costs in Q1. Our 2009 EPS estimate has increased to $0.79 (from $0.64) reflecting the outperformance this quarter and a lower effective tax rate going forward.

Our 5%/$1,100 peak gold NAVPS has increased moderately by 2% to $22.19 (from $21.80). Our target increased to US$36.50 (from US$36.00) and reflects a 1.65x multiple to our 5%/peak gold NAVPS. We maintained our HOLD rating on Goldcorp."

 PRINT THIS PAGE   EMAIL THIS PAGE

Under SEC rules, analysts are required to disclose their interest in securities that they cover. We strongly encourage you to contact them to understand any potential conflicts of interest they may have.

Related Quotes: