Robust Q4 Performance Expected for Goldcorp

Precious Metals Weekly (11/04/2008)
"Goldcorp reported adjusted Q3/08 EPS of $0.09 versus our and consensus estimate of
$0.14. The earnings shortfall is explained by lower-than-expected commercial
production of 550,200 oz at total cash costs of $346/oz versus our estimate of 604,000
oz at $357/oz, and a higher-than-expected effective tax rate. The largest production
variances were at Red Lake, Alumbrera, and Penasquito (production not deemed
commercial).

In maintaining its guidance range of 2.3-2.4 Moz for the year, this does imply a robust Q4 performance (we estimate 640,000 oz) which will be driven by improved production at Red Lake, Marlin, and Alumbrera. We have reconciled to the low end of the range (also adjusting out any Penasquito contribution from our 2008 commercial production estimate) at 2.264 M oz at total cash costs of $292/oz down from our previous forecast of 2.332 Moz at $301/oz. Our 2008 EPS estimate has decreased to $0.66 from $0.72.

Our 5%/$950 gold NAVPS was unchanged at $23.70. We maintain our BUY
recommendation on Goldcorp based on hedge-free growth in production highlighted by
expansions at Red Lake and Luismin, startup at Penasquito, and development of
Eleonore and Pueblo Viejo. Our target price of US$32.00 is unchanged and represents a
1.35 times multiple of our 5%/$950 peak gold NAVPS."

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