Weak Industrial Demand Will Hold Silver in Check

BARRY COOPER, CIBC World Markets (10/27/2008)
"We are also lowering our 2009, 2010 and long-term forecasts to $12/oz., $11/oz. and $10/oz. from $18.50/oz., $17/oz. and $10.50/oz., respectively. We believe that silver will be held in check relative to gold primarily due to weakness in industrial demand. In contrast to gold mines that are posting an operating margin of about $300/oz. or about $70 per tonne, silver mines are much closer to the brink of break-even. Using our 2009 metal price assumptions and then spot, one can see the difference in operating tightness for these examples within the silver sector. With less than a 10% margin at spot for each company, there is little room for sustaining capital expenditures to say nothing of corporate overhead changes."

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