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TICKERS: ABX, FSM; FVI; F4S, FNV, LRA, OR, OGN; OGNNF, TFPM

Why We Continue To Like Franco
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Adrian Day Global Analyst Adrian Day discusses Franco-Nevada Corp.'s (FNV:TSX; FNV:NYSE) investor day as well as preliminary results from other companies on his list.

Franco-Nevada Corp. (FNV:TSX; FNV:NYSE) held its annual "investor day."

There was little new, beyond updated full-year and five-year guidance, but the company laid out its strengths, including consistent returns and disciplined capital management; financial flexibility; an adaptable approach (including willingness to provide debt and equity in addition to royalty and stream financing, as well as make large investments in resources other than precious metals); and a strong counter-cyclical approach.

Franco called the current deal environment "healthy," and the company clearly has the means to transact. It has also indicated that it would like its next major transaction to be in gold, but the company has also been cautious when prices are high.

It has room to meaningfully increase its non-gold exposure, with a soft cap of 20% of revenues, while last year saw 14% in non-gold revenues.

This was partly due to relative price appreciation, particularly with the oil price declining modestly last year while the gold price jumped 70%.

Shuffling Towards a Panama Restart

The company noted the recent approval by the Panamanian government to allow processing and export of stockpiled ore at Cobre Panama, which will give Franco about 27,000 ounces over the next 12 months. The report of an environment audit is expected last this month.

This is a positive step towards the eventual resumption of operations. Excluding this mine, Franco is guiding to between 510k and 570k GEOs this year, with five-year guidance of 555k to 615k, likely somewhat conservative. The company noted that beyond 2030, its has existing optionality from over 230 different assets currently not in production.

Franco is in the best financial condition of all of the royalty companies, with $1.5 billion in cash plus $1.5 billion available on its credit line.

Franco is a core holding for us, because of its management, balance sheet, diversified asset base, and counter-cyclical approach to the highly cyclical resource business. We see the optionality from a restart of Cobre Panama and other assets, but at today's price are holding.

OR Comes Inline With Cautious Approach to Deals

OR Royalties (OR:TSX; OR:NYSE) announced preliminary first-quarter operating results, with 22.7k gold-equivalent ounces (GEOs) for $102.8 million in revenue, a little above analyst estimates and in line with full-year guidance.

The company ended the quarter with cash of $95 million, after repurchasing almost $13 million shares during the quarter.

It also received $17.5 million when a counterparty bought back half of one its streams. Its undrawn credit line stands at $650 million (with a $200 million accordion) so it is in a strong position for additional acquisitions.

OR had a relatively slow pace of deals closed in 2025, which it attributes to high valuations and other companies have better access to capital. It also said that acquiring an unsecured stream or royalty is a "non-starter."

OR has economically attractive assets in low-risk jurisdictions, and is trading below the multiples not only the big three but of peer Triple Flag.

We are looking to buy on any pullback.

Triple Flag Beats, Well on Track to Meet Guidance

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TFPM:TSX; TFPM:NYSE) announced preliminary first-quarter results, above analyst estimates, with GEOs just over 30k, up 5% from the last quarter, and nearly one third of its full-year guidance. Preliminary revenue estimate was for $147 million.

Triple Flag has strong management and key financial backing from Elliott Investment Management, a diverse asset base with strong cash flow generation, but it is more expensive than peer OR, though still less than the big three.

We are holding.

Fortuna Sees Solid Results, With Growth Projects on Track

Fortuna Mining Corp. (FSM:NYSE; FVI:TSX; FVI:BVL; F4S:FSE) reported production of almost 73,000 GEOs for the quarter, more-or-less in line with expectations.

There are three major projects progressing on target that will see increased ounces in coming years: the study for an expansion of the processing plant at Séguéla remains on track for completion next month; a new resource update on the Sunbird underground is also expected next month; and a feasibility study on the new mine, at Diamba Sud, is on track for mid-year completion.

The company repurchased 2.2 million shares during the quarter at an average price of $9.24. Financial results will be reported later.

Fortuna is a favorite mid-tier producer, with three mines in Latin America and West Africa, and a solid pipeline of organic growth, as well as a large exploration program, with solid execution. It has top, conservative management with a strong balance sheet, yet it remains undervalued relative to peers.

Fortuna is a buy.

Royalty Ground Grows for Orogen

Orogen Royalties Inc. (OGN:TSXV; OGNNF:OTC) announced an update to the resource estimate on First Majestic Silver Corp.'s (AG:TSX; AG:NYSE; FMV:FSE) Ermitaño Mine, on which it holds a 2% royalty.

M&I resources now stand at 380,000 ounces of gold and 8.9 million of silver. Some of the growth comes from a lower-cut off due to higher metal prices, but also from the Navidad vein system, over which Orogen has a separate royalty.

Hold, but be alert to buying opportunities in this volatile stock.

Barrick Switching Strategy

Barrick Mining Corp. (ABX:TSX; B:NYSE) paid former CEO Mark Bristow total compensation in 2025 of $22.87 million, including various separation arrangements, after he left the company in September. The prior year he was paid $11.84 million.

Barrick is moving away from Bristow's strategy in place since he took over the company in its merger with Randgold in 2019.

Specifically, it is moving away from riskier jurisdictions in Africa and Asia (including the massive Reko Diq copper project in Pakistan), is IPO'ing a small part of its North American assets, and will up the ante on acquisition. Bristow had been notoriously unwilling to pay up for assets.

We are holding.

The Market Likes Lara Financing

Lara Exploration Ltd. (LRA:TSX.V) responded well to its recent financing, which brings in sufficient cash to fund its activities at its Planalto Copper Project through to Feasibility Study next year as well as a major new shareholder, a Spanish copper miner. (See Bulletin #1005.)

The stock was at $3.32 when the deal was announced.

If you do not own already, you can buy, a solid company with top management, at a higher price than where we have recommended it before, but also in far better shape.

Top Buys This Week, in addition to the above, include Metalla Royalty & Streaming Ltd. (MTA:TSX.V; MTA:NYSE American), Midland Exploration Inc. (MD:TSX.V), and Ares Capital Corp. (ARCC:NASDAQ).


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Important Disclosures:

  1. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Franco-Nevada Corp., OR Royalties, Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp., Fortuna Mining Corp., Orogen Royalties Inc., First Majestic, Lara Exploration Ltd., Metalla Royalty, and Midland Exploration.
  2. Adrian Day: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: All. My company has a financial relationship with: None. My company has purchased stocks mentioned in this article for my management clients: All. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
  3. Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found  below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy. 
  4.  This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports' terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company. 

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Adrian Day Disclosures

Adrian Day’s Global Analyst is distributed for $990 per year by Investment Consultants International, Ltd., P.O. Box 6644, Annapolis, MD 21401. (410) 224-8885. www.AdrianDayGlobalAnalyst.com. Publisher: Adrian Day. Owner: Investment Consultants International, Ltd. Staff may have positions in securities discussed herein. Adrian Day is also President of Global Strategic Management (GSM), a registered investment advisor, and a separate company from this service. In his capacity as GSM president, Adrian Day may be buying or selling for clients securities recommended herein concurrently, before or after recommendations herein, and may be acting for clients in a manner contrary to recommendations herein. This is not a solicitation for GSM. Views herein are the editor’s opinion and not fact. All information is believed to be correct, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. The owner and editor are not responsible for errors and omissions. © 2023. Adrian Day’s Global Analyst. Information and advice herein are intended purely for the subscriber’s own account. Under no circumstances may any part of a Global Analyst e-mail be copied or distributed without prior written permission of the editor. Given the nature of this service, we will pursue any violations aggressively.





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