Tungsten is described as a cornerstone of heavy industry, though it often receives little public attention. According to a February 23 report from Mining.com, tungsten carbide, prized for its extreme hardness and density, is essential in machine parts, drill bits, and hard-facing materials, and in many applications, it is close to irreplaceable, making the metal a key enabler of manufacturing, mining, and defense.
The February 23 report also states that tungsten prices have surged fivefold over the past year as prolonged underinvestment and tightening Chinese supply push the market toward what analysts warn could become a severe global shortage. In a note published that Monday, BMO Global Commodities Research analysts George Heppel and Helen Amos said the world has "sleepwalked" into a tungsten crunch, driven by persistent ore grade decline, environmental restrictions, and a lack of new mining investment. The report notes that global inventories are critically low and that another deficit is forecast for 2026, with tightness expected to persist.
China accounts for roughly 75% of global supply, according to the February 23 report. Production has stagnated in recent years as ore grades decline, environmental controls tighten, and Beijing has moved to restrict exports of dual-use tungsten. As of early 2026, Chinese exports had plummeted, with some, such as ammonium paratungstate, falling to zero in late 2025. The report cites Fastmarkets data showing ammonium paratungstate prices broke out of their long-term average of about US$300 per ton in 2025 and now trade around US$1,775 per ton.
The Mining report outlines five potential mechanisms identified by BMO that could eventually rebalance the market. A meaningful expansion of Chinese mine supply appears unlikely in the near term due to grade challenges and environmental limits, although projects such as Dahutang could add material volumes over time. Outside China, several projects are advancing, but new mines typically take years to permit, finance, and build. Artisanal mining, which accounts for about 6% of global supply, may respond to higher prices, though BMO expects only short-term growth that would not materially replenish depleted inventories. Recycling presents another avenue, with limited scope to significantly increase recycling rates in western markets, while China could expand secondary supply over time if it builds out collection and processing infrastructure. Demand destruction is also described as possible, although substitution is challenging because of tungsten's unique properties.
BMO wrote that in the near term, the market will balance through a mix of artisanal supply growth and some demand destruction, but that adjustment will not be enough to restore comfortable inventory levels. The analysts stated, "The cure for high prices is high prices," adding that meaningful investment in mined supply will likely occur only at price levels well above historical norms.
On February 27, Stjepan Kalinic wrote that tungsten prices have quietly risen by around 500% over the past year. The article states that BMO Global Commodities Research warned the market has "sleepwalked" into a supply crunch as declining ore grades, tightening environmental restrictions, and chronic underinvestment in new capacity collided with export constraints from China. It reiterates that global inventories are critically low and that another supply deficit is forecast for 2026, with tightness likely to persist even at sharply higher prices.
The February 27 article further describes tungsten as rarely in the market spotlight despite its importance. It states that tungsten has the highest melting point of any metal and a density similar to gold, and that in carbide form it is exceptionally wear resistant, making it vital for cutting, drilling, and high-performance machining. It also states that tungsten is indispensable in defense applications because few metals combine extreme heat tolerance, hardness, and density.
Overseas and Domestic Price Increases
A February 24 analysis published by SMM reported that offshore tungsten prices surged past China during the Chinese New Year holiday. As of February 20, ammonium paratungstate CIF Rotterdam was priced at US$1,750 to US$1,850 per mtu, averaging US$1,800 per mtu, up 13.56% week over week. Ferrotungsten at the Rotterdam warehouse was reported at US$195 to US$205 per kilogram W, averaging US$200 per kilogram W, up 1.5% week over week. SMM stated that European downstream inventories remained tight, shortages were severe, and transaction prices were observed at US$1,800 to US$1,900 per mtu. With Chinese enterprises largely suspending offers during the holiday, SMM noted that Rotterdam APT prices exceeded Chinese market prices as of February 13, and that each new transaction drove higher offers amid raw material shortages.
The February 24 report also stated that European scrap tungsten prices followed the rise in raw materials. As of February 20, European scrap drill bits were offered at €80 to €100 per kilogram, averaging €90 per kilogram, up 12.5% week over week, while alloy blades were offered at €89 per kilogram. Indian scrap drill bits were offered FOB at US$106 to US$110 per kilogram and alloy blades at US$102 to US$106 per kilogram. According to SMM's latest survey, Indian alloy blade offers have been raised to US$110 to US$115 per kilogram, with tightening raw material supply for Indian carbide plants and emerging restocking demand.
SMM further reported that on the first trading day after the holiday, China's spot tungsten market rose overall. Spot APT prices were concentrated around 1.05 million yuan per metric ton, up 25,000 yuan per metric ton from pre-holiday levels and up 380,000 yuan per metric ton year to date. The SMM price for 65% wolframite concentrate closed at 701,500 yuan per metric ton, up 5,000 yuan per metric ton from pre-holiday levels and up 248,000 yuan per metric ton year to date, with some transactions reported around 705,000 yuan per metric ton.
The report also noted that a tungsten enterprise raised long term contract prices for the second half of February, offering 55% wolframite concentrate at 730,000 yuan per metric ton, 55% scheelite concentrate at 729,000 yuan per metric ton, and zero grade national standard APT at 1.07 million yuan per metric ton, reflecting month over month increases of 60,000 yuan per metric ton for concentrates and 100,000 yuan per metric ton for APT. SMM stated that tight supply conditions continued after the holiday, providing support for prices.
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