China's Antimony Deadline Is Weeks Away as US Army Commits Millions

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1. Perpetua Resources is a billboard sponsor of Streetwise Reports. The company pays a monthly sponsorship fee of US$3,000–US$6,000 for banner advertising and an enhanced company profile page. Streetwise Reports’ editorial content is fully independent and is not influenced by sponsorship.
2. As of the date of this article, officers, contractors, shareholders, and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd
3. James Guttman wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee. 
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1. Ownership and Share Structure Information

Ownership percentages, named holders, share count, market capitalization, and the 52-week range for Perpetua were compiled from company public filings and investor materials, exchange notices, insider-trade reports (SEDI / equivalent), and third-party data providers. Figures are as of 2026-11-06 unless a source was dated earlier. Pie slices are normalized to 100% of basic shares outstanding; retail is the residual after disclosed institutions, management, insiders, and strategic holders. Warrant terms are current outstanding series only. Restructures are historical consolidations, splits, and symbol or name changes. Insider buying and selling covers open-market trades from the prior six months through 2026-11-06 and excludes option exercises. These are public-source estimates and can differ from a later official register.

Key Investor Takeaways

China's November 27 Antimony Deadline Puts US Critical Mineral Supply in Focus

China's temporary suspension of its antimony export ban to the United States is scheduled to expire on November 27, 2026, bringing renewed attention to a critical mineral used in defense equipment, batteries, flame retardants, and other industrial applications. With the deadline approaching, uncertainty remains over whether Beijing will extend the suspension or reinstate restrictions that could further complicate American access to the material.

According to an October 5 report from Canada News Group published on Yahoo!Finance, China announced on November 9, 2025, that it would temporarily suspend its prohibition on exports of antimony, gallium, germanium, and superhard materials to the United States until November 27, 2026. The restrictions were originally introduced in December 2024 amid escalating trade tensions between the two countries.

The suspension did not eliminate China's broader export licensing requirements or separate restrictions on dual-use materials destined for U.S. military users. As a result, access to Chinese antimony remains subject to regulatory controls even before the November deadline.

The approaching deadline comes as the global antimony market is projected to expand. Citing The Business Research Company's Antimony Global Market Report 2026, the Yahoo!Finance report stated that the market is expected to grow from US$4.94 billion in 2025 to US$5.26 billion in 2026, representing annual growth of 6.6%. The market is projected to reach US$6.65 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6% from 2026 through 2030.

A separate forecast from Grand View Research estimated the global antimony market at US$2.17 billion in 2023 and projected a compound annual growth rate of 6.1% through 2030. Although the estimates differ, both forecasts suggest continued expansion in the market for the critical mineral.

US Dependence on Imported Antimony Raises Supply Concerns

Antimony plays an important role in several industries, particularly defense, energy storage, and manufacturing. The metalloid is used to strengthen lead alloys, improve the performance of lead-acid batteries, manufacture flame-retardant materials, and produce certain types of ammunition. It is also used in glass, ceramics, and other industrial products.

The United States remains heavily dependent on imports to meet domestic demand. According to the U.S. Geological Survey's Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, net import reliance accounted for approximately 91% of apparent U.S. antimony consumption in 2025.

The agency reported that metal products, including flame retardants, accounted for 49% of domestic antimony use, while antimonial lead and ammunition represented another 40%. Nonmetal applications, including ceramics, glass, and rubber, accounted for the remaining 11%.

China's position in the global antimony supply chain has made its export policies particularly significant. Restrictions introduced in 2024 contributed to concerns about the availability of the material, particularly for countries seeking to secure supplies for defense and industrial applications.

Antimony Prices Reflect Supply Constraints

Concerns about global antimony supplies have also been reflected in commodity prices. According to the USGS, the average price of antimony metal increased from US$10.24 per pound in 2024 to approximately US$25 per pound in 2025, an increase of roughly 144%.

The agency reported that antimony prices rose sharply following China's announcement of export restrictions in August 2024 and increased further after the U.S.-specific prohibition took effect that December. Prices reached approximately US$27.50 per pound in June 2025 before declining to US$20.30 per pound in November 2025.

The price movements demonstrated the market's sensitivity to changes in export policy and the availability of material from major producing countries. Although prices have fluctuated, the underlying concerns about concentrated supply and U.S. import dependence remain relevant.

With November 27 approaching, market participants will be watching whether China extends its current suspension or allows the U.S.-specific prohibition to return. Either outcome could influence international trade flows, although the broader export licensing requirements would remain a separate consideration.

While bringing new antimony production online requires exploration, permitting, financing, and development, projects capable of contributing to alternative sources of supply could play a role in longer-term efforts to reduce dependence on concentrated international production.

One company positioned to potentially benefit from the push for domestic antimony production is Perpetua Resources Corp., which is advancing its Stibnite Gold Project in Idaho. The project contains significant antimony reserves alongside its gold resources, offering the potential to establish a domestic source of a critical mineral currently dependent on foreign supply chains. As the United States seeks to strengthen its critical mineral security and reduce reliance on imports, Perpetua's U.S.-based project could become increasingly important, particularly if Chinese export restrictions tighten after November 27.

U.S. Army Awards Perpetua Up to US$40 Million for Critical Minerals Exploration

Perpetua Resources Corp. (PPTA:TSX; PPTA:NASDAQ) announced on October 26, 2026, that it had received an award of up to US$40 million from the U.S. Army to advance tungsten exploration at its Stibnite Gold Project in Idaho. The 36-month agreement, awarded through the Defense Ordnance Technology Consortium (DOTC), will support efforts to evaluate the technical and economic feasibility of producing tungsten concentrate domestically.

Under the cost-sharing arrangement, Perpetua will match the government's US$40 million contribution, potentially bringing the total program to US$80 million. Funding will support exploration drilling, metallurgical testing, engineering, and permitting activities associated with a proposed underground exploration decline at the Hangar Flats deposit.

"Resilient mineral solutions start here in America," said Perpetua President and CEO Jon Cherry in the company's October 26 release. He added that the Army's investment underscored the strategic importance of Stibnite's mineral resources and strengthened the partnerships supporting the project.

The initial 18-month phase is expected to cost approximately US$18 million, split equally between Perpetua and the Army. Only the first phase has been committed, with subsequent funding dependent on exploration results, technical work, permitting, and additional government approvals.

The agreement followed drilling that identified tungsten and antimony mineralization beneath the Hangar Flats pit. Notable results included 9.8 meters grading 4.6% tungsten and 8.3% antimony, 22.9 meters grading 1.2% tungsten and 3.2% antimony, and 3.4 meters grading 1.5% tungsten and 10.6% antimony.

Perpetua also identified approximately 1.37 million ounces of gold resources and more than 95 million pounds of antimony resources beneath the currently permitted Hangar Flats pit. These resources are not included in the existing mine plan or reported mineral reserves and would require additional regulatory review and permitting before any development outside the current mine plan.

The Stibnite Mining District has a history of supplying strategic minerals to the United States. According to Perpetua, the district provided approximately half of the country's tungsten and 90% of its antimony during World War II. Commercial production of both minerals subsequently ended.

The latest agreement brings Perpetua's total U.S. government critical minerals awards to US$126 million since 2022. The company has also submitted proposals seeking additional federal funding.

Tungsten Supply Constraints Reinforce Domestic Production Efforts

The Army's investment comes amid broader concerns about the availability of tungsten, another critical mineral used in defense equipment, industrial manufacturing, and high-performance cutting tools.

According to an October 9 analysis from Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), international tungsten supply constraints have increasingly shifted from mining to processing. Although tungsten concentrate production outside China expanded during 2026, limited smelting infrastructure in Europe and the United States restricted the ability to convert additional material into ammonium paratungstate (APT), an intermediate product used in tungsten manufacturing.

 H.C. Wainwright analyst Heiko Ihle reiterated his "Buy" rating and a US$43.50 target on October 1.

SMM reported that only three or four smelters possessed the necessary processing capabilities, while new facilities faced environmental requirements, significant capital costs, and construction timelines of three to five years. The publication also identified a price spread exceeding US$1,500 per metric ton unit between Chinese and Western tungsten concentrate markets as of October 9, reflecting processing constraints and limited available capacity.

An October 12 report from Fortune Business Insights valued the global tungsten market at US$5.43 billion in 2025.

The research identified demand for wear-resistant industrial tools as a major market driver. Citing the International Tungsten Industry Association, Fortune Business Insights reported that approximately 60% to 65% of global tungsten consumption involved cemented carbides, which are widely used in mining, construction, machining, and manufacturing.

Defense demand has also drawn attention. In an October 25 report, John Kim of TokenPost examined estimated ammunition expenditures during the Iran war, including tungsten requirements associated with replenishing rounds used by defensive gun systems. The publication estimated that replacing ammunition fired by C-RAM and similar systems could require nearly 4,000 kilograms of tungsten, excluding requirements associated with missile replenishment.

TokenPost also cited estimates of 11,294 munitions used by coalition forces during the conflict's first 16 days, with an estimated cost of US$26 billion. The publication cautioned that these figures were estimates rather than official military tallies.

The report noted that China produced approximately 67,000 metric tons of the 85,000 metric tons of tungsten mined globally in 2025, representing roughly 79% of worldwide production. The United States, meanwhile, has not commercially mined tungsten since 2015, leaving domestic demand dependent on imports.

Together, these supply and demand considerations provide additional context for Perpetua's exploration program, particularly as the United States seeks to develop domestic sources of minerals used in defense and industrial applications.

Analysts Maintain Buy Ratings on Perpetua Resources

Recent analyst coverage of Perpetua Resources has remained positive, with several firms maintaining "Buy" ratings and price targets above the company's recent trading levels.

On August 3, B. Riley Securities analyst Soundarya Iyer initiated coverage with a "Buy" rating and a US$30.00 price target. H.C. Wainwright analyst Heiko Ihle followed on August 18 with a "Buy" rating and a US$43.50 target.

Scotiabank analyst Ovais Habib initiated coverage on September 1 with a "Buy" rating and a US$38.88 target, while RBC Capital analyst Harrison Reynolds reiterated a "Buy" rating on September 15 with a US$42.00 target.

More recent assessments included a September 29 "Buy" rating from Habib with a revised US$39.24 target and an October 1 reiteration from Ihle maintaining his US$43.50 target.

Exploration, Financing, and Construction Milestones Ahead

Perpetua outlined several priorities for advancing its Stibnite Gold Project in its September 2026 investor presentation, including continued exploration, financing, construction planning, and a targeted production start in 2029.

The company's exploration program is focused on identifying additional gold, antimony, and tungsten mineralization near existing deposits, potentially supporting resource expansion and future adjustments to the mine plan.

At the Clark Tunnel Fault Zone near Yellow Pine, drilling returned 21.3 meters grading 3.2 grams per tonne (g/t) gold and 0.9% tungsten in hole SB597, 6.4 meters grading 16.2 g/t gold and 1.7% antimony in hole SB580, and 15 meters grading 6.3 g/t gold and 0.8% antimony in hole SB582.

At Hangar Flats, drilling returned 3 meters grading 14.5 g/t gold in hole SB584. Additional drilling beneath existing reserve pits identified antimony and tungsten mineralization, including 22.9 meters grading 3.2% antimony and 1.2% tungsten in hole SB519 and 9.8 meters grading 8.3% antimony and 4.6% tungsten in hole SB522.

Other exploration targets include Garnet, Scout, Upper Midnight, Cinnamid-Ridgetop, Saddle-Fern, Rabbit, Mule, Salt & Pepper, and Blow-out, along with prospective areas near Yellow Pine, Hangar Flats, and West End. These targets remain at varying stages of exploration, and additional work will be required to determine their resource potential.

Financing represents another important milestone. On May 21, 2026, Perpetua received approval from the U.S. Export-Import Bank for a US$2.9 billion senior secured loan to support development of the Stibnite Gold Project, subject to definitive loan documentation and applicable conditions. The company reported US$574.2 million in unrestricted cash and cash equivalents as of June 30, 2026, providing financial resources as it advances development planning.

Looking ahead, key developments include the execution of definitive financing agreements, progress toward construction, results from the ongoing gold and critical minerals exploration programs, and potential additional federal funding.

The company's targeted 2029 production start remains an important longer-term milestone. If successfully developed, Stibnite could contribute to domestic gold and antimony production, while the newly funded tungsten exploration program could further expand the project's potential role in U.S. critical mineral supply chains. 

Frequently Asked Questions

What happens when China's antimony export suspension expires on November 27, 2026?

Unless China extends or modifies the suspension, its U.S.-specific antimony export prohibition could resume. Broader Chinese export licensing requirements remain in effect regardless of the deadline.

Why is domestic antimony production important to the United States?

The United States relied on imports for approximately 91% of its apparent antimony consumption in 2025, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. Antimony is used in defense equipment, ammunition, batteries, and flame-retardant materials.

When could Perpetua Resources begin producing antimony in Idaho?

Perpetua is targeting 2029 for the start of production at its Stibnite Gold Project, subject to financing, construction, and other development requirements.