There Is No Shortage of Tungsten. This Mining Veteran Says the Real Opportunity Is Somewhere Else.

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1. Allied Critical Metals Inc. is a billboard sponsor of Streetwise Reports. The company pays a monthly sponsorship fee of US$3,000–US$6,000 for banner advertising and an enhanced company profile page. Streetwise Reports’ editorial content is fully independent and is not influenced by sponsorship. 
2. As of the date of this article, officers, contractors, shareholders, and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Allied Critical Metals.
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1. Ownership and Share Structure Information

The information listed above was updated on the date this article was published and was compiled from information from the company and various other data providers.

Key Investor Takeaways

Tungsten's Real Supply Problem: Bob Moriarty Says Production Matters More Than Resources

Veteran resource investor Bob Moriarty believes the tungsten market is facing a problem that has little to do with how much of the critical mineral exists underground. Instead, he argues that the real constraint is the amount of tungsten producers can bring to market, particularly as China maintains its dominant position in global supply.

During an October 9 appearance on the Old Gold video podcast, Moriarty, the founder of 321gold and a longtime commentator on precious metals and natural resources, explained why he believes companies capable of moving into production quickly may have an advantage over those still years away from developing their deposits.

"There is no shortage of tungsten," Moriarty said. "China has plenty of tungsten. Portugal has plenty of tungsten. South Korea has plenty of tungsten."

His argument centers on the difference between possessing tungsten resources and having the operational capacity to produce and deliver the metal.

"The issue is not how rare tungsten is. The issue is how rare is tungsten production that you can actually deliver," he said.

That distinction could be particularly relevant for companies working to bring existing tungsten projects into production rather than beginning lengthy exploration programs. One company whose development plans can be examined through that lens is Allied Critical Metals, which is advancing two tungsten projects in northern Portugal and targeting initial production during the fourth quarter of 2026.

Moriarty did not discuss Allied Critical Metals during the interview. Rather, his observations provide a broader industry perspective against which Allied's stated production plans can be evaluated.

The scale of China's influence was a central part of Moriarty's argument. When the podcast host suggested China controlled approximately 85% of the tungsten supply, Moriarty responded that he believed the figure was closer to 90%.

The latest available figures from the U.S. Geological Survey's 2026 Mineral Commodity Summaries put China's estimated 2025 tungsten mine production at 67,000 metric tons out of a worldwide total of 85,000 metric tons, representing approximately 78.8% of global output. Although lower than either estimate discussed during the interview, the figures confirm China's dominant position in tungsten mining.

The USGS also reported that China introduced export controls on selected tungsten products in February 2025, contributing to sharply higher international prices. According to the agency, Rotterdam prices for ammonium paratungstate (APT), an important intermediate tungsten product, increased from US$331 to US$675 per metric ton unit during 2025.

More recent pricing data supported Moriarty's observation that tungsten had risen by hundreds of percent over the preceding year. Fastmarkets reported on October 9 that its October 2 assessment for APT delivered to Rotterdam and Baltimore stood at US$2,700 to US$2,900 per metric ton unit, approximately 355% above its October 3, 2025, assessment of US$580 to US$615.

Moriarty argued that the supply imbalance did not necessarily reflect a lack of tungsten deposits. Instead, he pointed to the economics that had previously forced Western operations to close.

"There are dozens of tungsten mines in the U.S. and Canada, all over the world," he said, explaining that many had gone out of business because prices had not justified continued operations.

In his view, higher prices and geopolitical tensions have changed the economics of tungsten production, but they have not eliminated the time required to develop new mines.

"There are tons of tungsten projects out there," Moriarty said. "If you want to deal with somebody who's planning on drilling for the next five years, good luck with that."

The implication for investors is that a company's ability to produce and deliver tungsten may matter more in the near term than the size of its undeveloped mineral resources. Higher prices could improve project economics, but financing, permitting, processing capabilities, and execution remain important considerations.

Portugal is particularly relevant to this discussion because Moriarty specifically identified the country as having substantial tungsten resources. USGS figures show that Portugal produced an estimated 700 metric tons of tungsten in 2025, establishing it as an existing producer outside China.

That geographic connection provides a basis for examining Allied Critical Metals' plans to advance its two northern Portugal tungsten projects toward production. With the company targeting initial production in the fourth quarter of 2026, its progress offers a potential test of the distinction Moriarty drew between identifying tungsten resources and delivering tungsten to the market.

Allied's Portugal Projects Put Production in Focus

Moriarty's comments provide a relevant backdrop for Allied Critical Metals Inc. (ACM:CSE; ACMIF:OTCQB; 0VJ0:FSE), which is advancing two tungsten projects in northern Portugal. The company's near-term production strategy reflects Moriarty's distinction, which he drew between identifying tungsten resources and delivering concentrate to market.

At its Vila Verde project, Allied is targeting first tungsten concentrate production from a pilot plant in the fourth quarter of 2026, subject to regulatory approvals and delivery of long-lead equipment. The operation would initially process up to 150,000 tonnes of mineralized material annually, with potential expansion to 300,000 tonnes.

The timeline represents a delay from the company's original fourth-quarter 2025 target. Allied is working to convert its exploration license into an experimental mining license, allowing it to begin production while pursuing longer-term development approvals. As of the latest information provided, the first concentrate production had not been confirmed.

Financing and Offtake Support the Production Strategy

In April 2026, Allied announced a US$40 million financing package, comprising a US$25 million equity offering and a separate US$15 million project financing facility for the Vila Verde pilot plant. The company reported more than US$45 million in cash liquidity and available project financing in its May corporate update. On September 28, Allied announced that it had closed the second tranche of the equity offering, raising US$15 million from Tribeca Investment Partners.

Allied also secured a binding five-year offtake agreement covering 50% of Vila Verde's planned pilot plant concentrate production, with a 2026 floor price of US$1,000 per metric tonne unit. It has separately announced a letter of intent with Pennsylvania-based Global Tungsten & Powders for concentrate sales, although the current status of that arrangement requires confirmation.

Allied's larger, 100%-owned Borralha Tungsten Project is a past-producing operation described by the company as one of the European Union's largest undeveloped tungsten resources.

An April 2026 preliminary economic assessment outlined an initial 11-year mine plan, with an estimated after-tax net present value of US$134 million at an 8% discount rate and a 27.2% internal rate of return under its base-case assumptions.

A fully funded 20,000-meter drilling program is underway, targeting resource conversion and expansion. Borralha received a favorable Environmental Impact Declaration in January 2026.

Analysts See Upside as Allied Advances Its Tungsten Projects

On September 18, Ventum Capital Markets analyst Surya Sankarasubramanian maintained a "Buy" rating and CA$2.95 price target on Allied, describing recent Santa Helena drilling results as "Modestly Positive."

He emphasized the importance of converting inferred resources into higher-confidence categories as Borralha advances toward more detailed studies.

Ventum Capital Markets analyst Surya Sankarasubramanian maintained a "Buy" rating and CA$4.80 price target on Allied Critical Metals.

On September 30, Sankarasubramanian shared an update on Allied, where he raised his price target to CA$4.80, while maintaining his Buy rating.

Diamond Equity Research analyst Hunter Diamond reaffirmed a CA$3.50 per-share valuation in a September 25 company-sponsored research update. Diamond highlighted the drilling program's contribution to resource confidence, engineering, and mine planning, while noting that successful execution remained important to the valuation.

For Allied, the immediate test of Moriarty's production-focused thesis is Vila Verde. Financing and offtake arrangements are in place, but the company's ability to produce and deliver tungsten concentrate will determine whether its near-term strategy translates into operating results.

Ownership and Share Structure¹

Following the September 28 financing, Allied Critical Metals has approximately 194.63 million shares outstanding, subject to the company's post-closing share-count disclosure. The company's 52-week range is CA$0.33-CA$2.48.

Institutions own 16% of shares, while Management and Insiders own 31%. The remaining 53% of shares are held by Retail.

Frequently Asked Questions About Tungsten Supply, Prices, and Allied Critical Metals

Why is tungsten becoming one of the most important critical minerals in 2026?

Tungsten is a strategically important metal used in defense equipment, aerospace components, industrial manufacturing, and high-performance cutting tools. Its exceptional hardness and high melting point make it difficult to replace in certain applications. Growing concerns about China's dominance of global tungsten production and export restrictions have increased attention on alternative suppliers, particularly in Europe and North America.

Is there a global tungsten shortage in 2026?

According to veteran resource investor Bob Moriarty, the primary problem is not a shortage of tungsten resources but a shortage of production that can actually reach customers. During an October 9, 2026, appearance on the Old Gold podcast, Moriarty emphasized that countries including Portugal and South Korea have tungsten deposits, but relatively few projects are positioned to deliver near-term production.

How much of the world's tungsten does China control?

According to the U.S. Geological Survey's 2026 Mineral Commodity Summaries, China produced approximately 67,000 metric tons of tungsten in 2025, representing about 79% of estimated global mine production. China's dominant market position and restrictions on selected tungsten exports have increased interest in developing tungsten mines outside China.

How much have tungsten prices increased in 2026?

Tungsten prices have risen sharply amid supply concerns and export restrictions. Fastmarkets assessed ammonium paratungstate (APT) delivered to Rotterdam and Baltimore at US$2,700 to US$2,900 per metric tonne unit on October 2, 2026, approximately 355% above its assessment from October 3, 2025. APT is an important intermediate product in the tungsten supply chain, although prices vary by product and market.

Which tungsten mining companies could benefit from China's export restrictions?

Companies developing tungsten production outside China have attracted attention as governments and industrial customers seek more diversified supply chains. Allied Critical Metals Inc. is one company pursuing near-term tungsten concentrate production in Portugal. Its ability to benefit from market conditions will depend on permitting, commissioning, production costs, and the successful delivery of concentrate.

When will Allied Critical Metals begin tungsten production in Portugal?

Allied Critical Metals has targeted the fourth quarter of 2026 for initial tungsten concentrate production from its Vila Verde pilot plant. The facility is designed to process up to 150,000 tonnes of mineralized material annually, with potential expansion to 300,000 tonnes. The target is subject to regulatory approvals and delivery of long-lead equipment. First production has not yet been confirmed in the information available for this article.

What are Allied Critical Metals' Vila Verde and Borralha tungsten projects?

Vila Verde and Borralha are two tungsten projects in northern Portugal. Vila Verde is the company's near-term production priority, using an existing quarry operation and a planned pilot processing facility. Borralha is a larger, past-producing tungsten project with an initial 11-year mine plan outlined in its preliminary economic assessment. Allied is conducting a 20,000-meter drilling program at Borralha to support resource conversion, expansion, and further technical studies.

Does Allied Critical Metals have tungsten offtake agreements with buyers?

Allied has announced a binding five-year offtake agreement covering 50% of planned tungsten concentrate production from the Vila Verde pilot plant, including a 2026 floor price of US$1,000 per metric tonne unit. The company has also announced a letter of intent with Pennsylvania-based Global Tungsten & Powders for potential concentrate sales. The current status of that letter of intent requires confirmation.

What is the Allied Critical Metals stock price target for 2026?

Ventum Capital Markets analyst Surya Sankarasubramanian maintained a "Buy" rating and CA$4.80 price target on Allied Critical Metals in September 2026.

Diamond Equity Research analyst Hunter Diamond reaffirmed a CA$3.50 per-share valuation in a September 25 company-sponsored research update. These estimates reflect the analysts' assumptions and are not guarantees of future share performance.

Why could Portugal become an important source of tungsten for the United States and Europe?

Portugal has an established history of tungsten mining and existing mineral resources. Its location within the European Union makes it relevant to efforts to diversify critical mineral supply chains away from China. Projects such as Allied Critical Metals' Vila Verde and Borralha could contribute to an alternative tungsten supply if development, permitting, and production milestones are achieved.

What should investors watch next for Allied Critical Metals stock?

The most immediate milestone is the commissioning of the Vila Verde pilot plant and confirmation of the first tungsten concentrate production. Investors can also monitor the project's regulatory approvals, concentrate deliveries, progress under its offtake agreements, and results from Borralha's 20,000-meter drilling program. These developments could help determine whether Allied can transition from tungsten project development toward sustained production.