A Focus on Gold/Silver Stocks With a Coming Low in the Gold/SPX Ratio
Contributed Opinion

Important Disclosures:

1. As of the date of this article, officers, contractors, shareholders, and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd., B2Gold Corp., Elemental Royalties Corp., Franco-Nevada Corp., Metallic Minerals Corp., Royal Gold Inc., Snowline Gold Corp., Stillwater Critical Minerals Corp., and Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.
2. Gary Tanashian: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: Rio2 Ltd., Skeena Resources Ltd., Talon Metals Corp., Snowline Gold Corp., American Eagle Gold Corp., Alamos Gold Inc., Coeur Mining Inc., Royal Gold Inc., Franco-Nevada Corp., Wheaton Precious Metals Corp., Elemental Royalties Corp., Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp., and Vox Royalty Corp. My company has a financial relationship with: None. My company has purchased stocks mentioned in this article for my management clients: None. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
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It has been a long and frankly much-needed correction in gold's price vs. various stock markets. In this case, we use the broad S&P 500.

This chart below of the GLD/SPY ratio shows the situation clearly as the ratio, once favoring gold to an overbought degree in Q1, 2026, has corrected nearly as far as it should if the relative gold bull market is not to be rudely interrupted.

Flipping the picture over to its SPX/Gold view and expanding it to a much longer history, we find SPX bouncing just as we anticipated at the oversold (overbought on GLD/SPY above) reading in Q1.

As you can see, there is more headroom for SPX/Gold to bounce while remaining under the dome that represents a secular change to a pro-gold macro (relative to stocks).

So the big picture is positive for gold, but shorter-term macro factors are currently not positive. These range from still-rising "real" Treasury yields to the recently strong U.S. dollar.

Let's focus on how to position in the precious metals sector, assuming a coming bottom and upturn in Gold vs. SPX and many other cyclical markets. The gold mining industry benefits not from inflation as some believe, but instead from a lack thereof within a counter-cyclical backdrop.

In other words, what's bad for most companies and the wider economy (a lack of inflation, which, let's be honest, has been employed as policy by Fed/Treasury combos to goose the economy and markets for decades now) is good for the counter-cyclical gold mining sector.

With that, let's review some of the top names in the industry (I personally hold several of these, along with smaller exploration situations that sport much higher risk, but also higher potential gains).

Royalty/Streamers

These companies offload and spread execution and geopolitical risk across multiple mining exploration, development, and production companies in the precious, industrial, and critical minerals mining space. Generally viewed as safer with valuations to match, the segment as a whole would likely underperform the actual miners within the proper "counter-cyclical" macro environment. "Under-perform" does not mean they would not make significant gains, however. They would.

Quality large names include Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD:NASDAQ), Franco-Nevada Corp. (FNV:TSX; FNV:NYSE), and Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM:TSX; WPM:NYSE).

Smaller names of interest include Elemental Royalty Corp. (ELE:TSX; ELE:NASDAQ), Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TFPM:TSX; TFPM:NYSE), and Vox Royalty Corp. (VOXR:TSX; VOXR:NASDAQ). 

I currently own all of the stocks mentioned above.

Interlude: The Lassonde Curve

Most people familiar with the mining industry are familiar with this important cycle guide to the various stages of a would-be mining company.

Suffice it to say that while Royalties and even large, well-known miners are the safest bets, the real money is often made in catching the curve at the right point.

That means permitted mine developers.

Large Miners

These guys rip precious and industrial metals out of the ground with all the associated risk involved. Increasing the risk is that they do this globally, and political risk is always a clear and present danger, depending on the locale. I tend to stay close to home, in the lower-risk jurisdictions of the U.S. and Canada. However, global risk can be mitigated by well-diversified large miners.

Quality names include Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM:TSX; AEM:NYSE), Newmont Corp. (NEM:NYSE; NEM:ASX; PNGX:NEM), and Kinross Gold Corp. (K:TSX; KGC:NYSE). I do not currently own any of these, but that may change shortly. AEM is considered the class of this segment.

Intermediate Miners

These guys have hit a certain level of growth as to be taken seriously, either as an acquirer of other mines in order to grow their operations or as an acquisition target for a large miner.

I prefer these names for their established status, but also growth/acquisition potential.

Quality names include Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI:TSX; AGI:NYSE), Coeur Mining Inc. (CDE:TSX; CDE:NYSE), Equinox Gold Corp. (EQX:TSX; EQX:NYSEAMERICAN), Hecla Mining Co. (HL:NYSE), and B2Gold Corp. (BTO:TSX; BTG:NYSEAMERICAN; B2G:NSX). I currently hold AGI and CDE, with the others (and more) very much on watch.

Juniors, Developers and Exploration

Here is the risk … and here is the reward. And here it is well worth a review of the Lassonde Curve above. You don't want to sit interminably losing capital during that orphan period unless you're fully committed to the situation.

There are many holes in the ground, some even with "a liar on top" (Mark Twain). So it is important to do strong research or have access to it. If you hit the right situation, you can make your year (or your career). Hit the wrong one, and you could lose your whole investment.

Favored names in this area are Rio2 Ltd. (RIO:TSX; RIOFF:OTCQX; RIO:BVL), recently emerged from development, Skeena Resources Ltd (SKE:TSX; SKE:NYSE), Talon Metals Corp. (TLO:TSX; TLOFF:OTCMKTS), Snowline Gold Corp. (SGD:TSX; SNWGF:OTCQB), and American Eagle Gold Corp. (AE:TSXV; AMEGF:OTCQB). I currently hold all of them with an eye on U.S.-based exploration in Metallic Minerals Corp. (MMG:TSX.V; MMNGF:OTCQB; 9MM1:FSE) and Stillwater Critical Minerals Corp. (PGE:TSX.V; PGEZF:OTCQB; J0G:FSE).

Bottom Line

This is a blueprint for someone who would like to buy the precious metals and critical minerals sector, assuming gold bottoms vs. stocks, as expected. We are in a very sensitive political period with policymakers, shall we say, "involved" in the market, and shall we also say, trying to adjust the macro accordingly. Such adjustments are not usually gold-positive, at least in relation to stocks.

So the bottom line is that there is time to evaluate your favored stocks in the precious and critical minerals space and know why you have interest, rather than chasing them with little research later on. One size definitely does not fit all.

You can view more from Gary here.