BC Regulator Advances Review of Seabridge's KSM

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1. Ownership and Share Structure Information

The information listed above was updated on the date this article was published and was compiled from information from the company and various other data providers.

Seabridge Gold Inc. (SEA:TSX; SA:NYSE) said British Columbia's Environmental Assessment Office (EAO) has provided an update on its reconsideration of the Substantially Started Designation (SSD) for the KSM Project in northwest British Columbia, according to a September 22 release.

KSM received its SSD on July 24, 2024, but the designation was later challenged by the Tsetsaut Skii km Lax Ha (TSKLH) in the Supreme Court of British Columbia. A June 8, 2026, court ruling directed the EAO to reconsider the SSD after conducting another 90-day consultation period with the TSKLH. That consultation period is scheduled to end on September 28.

The EAO said in the letter that once the consultation period ends, either after 90 days or shortly afterward if the EAO and TSKLH agree, Seabridge will have an opportunity to respond to submissions from the TSKLH. The agency will then prepare a report addressing the SSD reconsideration based on the court's findings and any relevant new information, with Seabridge, the TSKLH, and other Indigenous groups given an opportunity to review the draft before the EAO makes its recommendation to the decision maker for a new determination.

Seabridge Chair Rudi Fronk said the EAO's letter "recognizes the importance of a timely decision for Seabridge Gold and will strive to complete the process as efficiently as possible, while fulfilling its duty to consult and ensuring that any decision is transparent, well-informed, and durable."

He continued, "We appreciate the measured and thoughtful response of the EAO, and we look forward to a full resolution of this matter. We also thank the Nisga'a and Tahltan Nations for their continued support of KSM and a renewed SSD, as articulated in recent letters submitted to the EAO."

The letter confirmed that the agency accepted Seabridge's September 10 report, "KSM Project — Construction Update In Support of a Substantial Start Determination January 1, 2024 - July 28, 2026," as part of the record for the SSD reconsideration. According to the letter, the EAO has provided the report to the TSKLH and the other First Nations involved in the original substantial start determination, allowing them to comment during the consultation period.

A meeting is scheduled for mid-October between the EAO and the TSKLH to discuss any submissions the TSKLH provides during the consultation, creating a further step in the process after the September 28 consultation deadline, the EAO letter said.

KSM's Power Infrastructure Clears Major Hurdle

Seabridge earlier announced it has largely finished construction and successfully powered up the Treaty Creek Terminal (TCT), marking an important infrastructure step for its KSM project in northwestern British Columbia, according to a September 8 release. The company completed the terminal's substantial construction and energized the facility on August 27.

Positioned along Highway 37 roughly 2 kilometers north of the KSM project entrance, the TCT represents a key component of the electrical system planned to support KSM's eventual construction and operations.

Seabridge expects the terminal to be operational by November 2026.

"The Treaty Creek Terminal means KSM has access to reliable, clean, and economic hydroelectric power, which lowers KSM's carbon footprint and reduces its operating costs," Fronk said at the time. "We appreciate BC Hydro's continued commitment to supporting responsible resource development in northwestern British Columbia."

Seabridge calls KSM one of the largest undeveloped copper-gold projects held by a publicly traded company and says it could develop into a significant long-term supplier of critical minerals. The company has invested more than CA$1.2 billion in advancing KSM, with a substantial portion of that spending directed to businesses and workers in the surrounding region.

Multiple Analysts See Upside Ahead of JV News

Stonegate Capital Partners analyst Dave Storms wrote on August 20 that Seabridge's second-quarter results improved the prospects for moving KSM toward development and securing funding. He viewed the US$100 million unsecured facility as another indication of confidence in the project, while placing less weight on the quarterly earnings because most of the net income reflected a one-time distribution gain from Courageous Lake.

Storms sees KSM as the company's main potential driver of a valuation change, with progress toward a new ownership and financing arrangement more important than expanding the resource at this stage. Five camps are supporting geotechnical, metallurgical, geochemical, and environmental work for the feasibility study. The project remains on schedule, with the UTCAR approximately 40% complete, TCT construction expected to finish in the fourth quarter of 2026, and the feasibility study planned for the second half of 2027. The court-directed consultation related to KSM's "Substantially Started" designation is also proceeding, with written submissions from Tsetsaut Skii km Lax Ha due September 28. Storms identified a potential joint-venture transaction, possibly before year-end, as the next major catalyst.

Using an EV/NAV range of 0.8x to 0.9x, Storms arrived at values between US$63.97 and US$72.37, with a midpoint of US$68.17. His EV/In-Situ valuation produced a range of US$61.49 to US$83.07 using multiples of 6.0x to 8.0x, resulting in a US$72.28 target.

RBC Capital's Josh Wolfson reiterated his Buy rating on September 15 with a CA$101.34 target.

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Mike Kozak described the financing as moderately positive on July 20, saying it gives Seabridge additional capacity to fund KSM's feasibility-stage activities while it works toward a joint venture intended to enhance project value without immediately diluting shareholders. He continued to expect a JV transaction in 2026 and suggested that the facility's short duration and strategic investor could point to an announcement before year-end.

Kozak maintained his Buy rating and CA$66 target, which represented approximately 115% upside when his report was published.

"The company's flagship 100%-owned KSM project is among the world's largest development-stage gold-copper projects," Kozak noted. "It is permitted to commence construction and is scoped to produce +1.0 MMoz Au (million ounces gold)/year (plus by-products) over a multi-decade mine life."

The Catalyst: Central Banks Keep Gold's Long-Term Case Intact

Gold prices have pulled back from recent highs, but several underlying trends remain supportive of the longer-term bullion market, according to a report by BullionVault on September 23. Global gold-backed ETFs expanded last week to require more than 4,250 tonnes of gold for the first time, according to World Gold Council data, highlighting continued investor demand even as higher real Treasury yields have created headwinds for the metal.

Gold's traditional inverse relationship with real interest rates has weakened, with bullion and inflation-protected Treasury yields moving in the same direction over the past 13 weeks. The shift suggests investors are increasingly supporting gold for factors beyond interest rates, including central-bank reserve diversification away from the U.S. dollar, concerns about U.S. fiscal sustainability, and the metal's growing exposure to broader liquidity conditions. The broader investment case remains intact despite the latest decline. Gold briefly fell to about US$4,278 an ounce, while silver dropped to US$64.38, as oil moved back above US$100 a barrel and long-term borrowing costs rose. Yet the record level of gold held by global ETFs, continued reserve diversification by central banks, and the metal's changing relationship with real yields point to structural sources of demand that extend beyond short-term interest-rate moves.

Gold's ability to attract investment despite elevated real yields stands out because those yields reached their highest level since November 2008. That bullion demand has held up under those conditions suggests the market is increasingly responding to liquidity, reserve diversification, and concerns over government finances, rather than relying solely on falling rates to support prices.

Bernstein has lowered its long-term gold price outlook but remains constructive on the metal, arguing that bullion can continue advancing even if real interest rates move higher, Sam Boughedda wrote for Investing.com on September 21. Analyst Bob Brackett reduced the firm's 2030 gold forecast to US$5,600 an ounce from US$6,100 after expectations shifted from rate cuts earlier this year toward two or three increases by 2027. Real rates have also climbed to about 2.7% from 1.7% in early March.

Despite gold's historically inverse relationship with real rates, Brackett noted that gold ETF holdings have remained relatively stable this year and that prices have shown resilience following the Federal Reserve's latest rate increase. He said the metal "can rise with slowly rising real rates — the path we appear to be on," pointing to gold's performance from 2023 through 2025 as a precedent.

Brackett identified continued central-bank accumulation as the main long-term support for gold. "We continue to believe central banks are not finished diversifying reserves away from the US dollar and other G7 currencies into gold," he wrote, noting that major reserve holders such as China, Japan, and Saudi Arabia still hold less than 10% of their reserves in gold.

The main risk to the outlook is a slowdown in central-bank purchases. Brackett also warned that sustained strength in diesel and refined-product prices could push inflation higher and increase expectations for additional rate hikes, while a loss of Trump's congressional majority in the midterm elections could weaken safe-haven demand.

Ownership and Share Structure¹

Management and insiders own approximately 2.43% of Seabridge, while institutions hold about 61.76%, with retail investors accounting for the balance.

The company has roughly 107.87 million shares outstanding, a market capitalization of about CA$4.95 billion, and a 52-week trading range of approximately CA$26.63 to CA$50.77.

Common Investor Questions

What did Seabridge Gold announce on September 22? British Columbia's Environmental Assessment Office sent an update on its reconsideration of the Substantially Started Designation for the KSM Project, following a BC Supreme Court ruling that required a new 90-day consultation period with the Tsetsaut Skii km Lax Ha First Nation. That consultation period concludes September 28.

What happens after the September 28 deadline? Seabridge will get a chance to respond to TSKLH's submissions, after which the EAO will draft a reconsideration report. Seabridge, TSKLH, and other Indigenous groups will review that draft before the EAO makes a final recommendation to the decision-maker. A separate meeting between the EAO and TSKLH is scheduled for mid-October to discuss TSKLH's submissions.

What did Chair Rudi Fronk say about the process? He called the EAO's response "measured and thoughtful," noted the agency recognized the importance of a timely decision, and thanked the Nisga'a and Tahltan Nations for their continued support of KSM and a renewed SSD.

What other recent milestone has Seabridge reached at KSM? The company substantially completed and energized the Treaty Creek Terminal on August 27 — a key piece of KSM's planned electrical infrastructure, expected to be fully operational by November 2026. Seabridge has invested more than CA$1.2 billion in KSM to date.

What do analysts expect next for Seabridge? Several — including Stonegate's Dave Storms and Cantor Fitzgerald's Mike Kozak — see a joint-venture transaction, potentially before year-end, as the next major catalyst for the stock, alongside continued feasibility-study progress (targeted for the second half of 2027).

What's the broader gold market backdrop? Gold has pulled back recently but remains supported by record ETF holdings (over 4,250 tonnes), continued central-bank reserve diversification, and a weakening historical link between gold and real interest rates. Bernstein trimmed its 2030 gold forecast to US$5,600 from US$6,100 but remains constructive, citing continued central-bank buying as the key long-term support.