Gold Reclaims US$4,400 as Goldman Sachs Sees US$4,900 Ahead

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Gold moved back above US$4,400 per ounce as we entered the second week of September, snapping a three-session decline as a softer U.S. dollar provided support and investors weighed escalating Middle East tensions against the prospect of higher interest rates.

Spot gold rose 1.1% to US$4,401.09 per ounce during Wednesday trading, while December U.S. gold futures gained 0.1% to US$4,445.10. Trading Economics separately showed gold at US$4,393.96 early Wednesday, up 0.88% for the day and 20.70% from a year earlier.

The latest move came as investors awaited U.S. producer price data on Thursday and consumer price data on Friday, both of which could influence expectations ahead of the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting. Traders were pricing in roughly a 60% probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase next week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool cited by Reuters on the 8th.

The competing forces have created an unusual backdrop for bullion. A weaker dollar can make gold more affordable for buyers using other currencies, while escalating tensions involving the United States and Iran have added geopolitical uncertainty. At the same time, rising oil prices have increased inflation concerns, potentially strengthening the case for higher interest rates, which can weigh on non-yielding gold.

FXTM Senior Research Analyst Lukman Otunuga told Reuters that gold was receiving "ample support from a weaker dollar and technical buying," while saying the market's near-term direction would ultimately be determined by this week's U.S. inflation data.

The technical outlook also remained divided. Saxo Bank Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen said a break below US$4,300 could point toward a deeper correction toward support around US$4,000. Conversely, he said a sustained break above the 200-day moving average would improve the technical picture and bring US$4,770 into focus.

That US$4,000 level also figured prominently in a more bullish longer-term outlook from Goldman Sachs. Anthony Kim, Global Head of Metals Trading at Goldman Sachs, said the pullback from gold's January record of US$5,589.38 represented an "elongated pause" rather than the end of the bull market.

"We're still bullish gold," Kim said. "But in terms of a level that we like, US$4,000 is a pretty solid floor. We see sovereign buying at those levels. We see institutional sponsorship at those levels."

Kim said he expected the bull trend eventually to resume and new highs to follow. Goldman Sachs Research separately forecast gold reaching US$4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, citing continued central bank reserve diversification and an expected easing of the interest-rate headwind.

Central bank buying remained a significant part of that outlook. Goldman Sachs Research projected central banks would purchase an average of 50 tonnes of gold per month during 2026, compared with an average of 17 tonnes per month before 2022. Its estimate of sovereign purchases accelerated to 100 tonnes per month in June on a three-month seasonally adjusted basis, with China's central bank the largest confirmed buyer that month.

The firm also identified potential upside beyond its US$4,900 year-end forecast, including increased private-investor diversification amid geopolitical concerns and questions surrounding fiscal sustainability. At the same time, Goldman analysts cautioned that increased use of gold derivatives as portfolio hedges could amplify price movements in both directions.

Gold's position relative to U.S. equities has also become part of the investment outlook heading into the final quarter of 2026. The Motley Fool reported September 8 that the S&P 500 had gained approximately 13% for the year and was trading around record levels, while the SPDR Gold Shares fund was up about 3%. The publication pointed to the possibility of higher interest rates, elevated stock valuations, and uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy as factors that could renew investor interest in gold as a way to diversify and reduce exposure to equity-market volatility.

Central Bank Buying and Currency Concerns Add to the Gold Outlook

In a September 8 commentary, Matthew Piepenburg, partner at Von Greyerz, pointed to developments in Japan's bond market as a potential warning for other developed economies. He highlighted the Japanese 30-year government bond yield moving above 4.18% and argued that rising sovereign yields, elevated government debt, and continued monetary expansion were increasing risks to currencies and financial markets.

Piepenburg connected those conditions directly to gold, arguing that rising debt-servicing costs and currency debasement were helping drive central banks toward the precious metal. He also compared recent equity-market performance with gold, noting that although Japan's Nikkei had gained 145% over five years, he calculated that it had lost 31% when measured in gold. Over the same period, he said the Nasdaq 100 had gained 95% in nominal terms but declined 23% when measured against gold.

"Timing this convergence is a mug's game. Preparing for it is not," Piepenburg wrote. He argued that physical gold could provide protection against the effects of rising rates, weakening bonds, and currency debasement.

Central bank accumulation was also the focus of a September 7 report from Ahead of the Herd, which said global official gold reserves had reached approximately 36,600 tonnes. The report identified Poland and China among the major buyers and said Guatemala, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Czech Republic, and Serbia had also entered or returned to the market.

Ahead of the Herd described a major shift in central bank behavior following the 2008 financial crisis and another acceleration after 2022. According to the report, central banks purchased an average of approximately 473 tonnes annually during the 11-year period following the financial crisis. Purchases subsequently exceeded 1,000 tonnes annually from 2022 through 2024 before moderating to 863 tonnes in 2025.

The report attributed the increased accumulation partly to central banks seeking to diversify reserves, reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar, and hold assets less exposed to potential foreign sanctions or freezes. Because central banks generally acquire physical gold as a long-term reserve asset, Ahead of the Herd argued that sustained official-sector purchases could reduce available supply and provide underlying support for gold prices.

The report noted that the United States remained the world's largest official holder with approximately 8,133.5 tonnes, while China had increased its reported reserves beyond 2,330 tonnes. Ahead of the Herd also cited a World Gold Council survey in discussing central banks' motivations for holding gold, including geopolitical risk, reserve diversification, and concerns surrounding sanctions.

The central-bank theme is closely aligned with Goldman Sachs Research's outlook. Ahead of the Herd noted that institutional estimates showed central banks continuing to purchase gold at substantially higher rates than before 2022, while Goldman Sachs separately forecast average central bank purchases of 50 tonnes per month in 2026 and projected gold at US$4,900 per ounce by year-end.

Against this backdrop of elevated gold prices, continued central bank buying, and expectations for the metal's longer-term outlook, one company working in the sector is advancing a gold project as investors continue to watch where the precious metal heads next.

NexGold Mining

NexGold Mining Corp. (NEXG:TSX.V; NXGCF:OTCQX; TRC1:FSE) is advancing the Goldboro Gold Project in Nova Scotia through a series of key milestones planned for 2026, including an updated Mineral Resource Estimate and Feasibility Study, detailed engineering, procurement planning, and activities supporting project financing and a final investment and construction decision.

In parallel, the company has been conducting a 40,000-meter close-spaced infill drilling program designed to improve confidence in near-surface Mineral Resources within the project's planned west and east pits at Goldboro.

The company also recently reported additional drilling results from the Goldlund Deposit at its Goliath Gold Complex in Ontario, where an initial 25,000-meter drill program has now been expanded to approximately 35,000 meters. The additional 10,000 meters of diamond drilling is expected to continue through fall 2026.

The drilling targeted Zone 4 near the northeastern portion of the Goldlund open-pit Mineral Resource and was designed to provide additional information about the continuity and distribution of mineralization.

Recent highlights from 11 drill holes covering 4,686 meters included:

• 08 g/t gold over 17.0 meters, including 70.20 g/t gold over 0.5 meters and 12.60 g/t over 0.5 meters in hole GL-26-026;
• 80 g/t gold over 5.6 meters, including 16.30 g/t over 0.9 meters in hole GL-26-025; and
• 30 g/t gold over 1.0 meters in hole GL-26-022.

NexGold President, CEO, and Director Kevin Bullock commented in an August 25, 2026, news release, "The latest results coming from our diamond drilling program at the Goldlund Deposit continue to demonstrate continuity of mineralization within Zone 4 and provide geological and grade information at depth." He added that the program was intended to further evaluate mineralization and improve the company's understanding of deeper portions of the deposit.

Based on results to date and exploration potential identified within and adjacent to the existing open-pit Mineral Resource, NexGold increased the Goldlund drilling program by 40%. The company said the additional drilling would further test mineralization along strike and down dip and provide information for future Mineral Resource evaluations. Goldlund is part of the 330-square-kilometer Goliath Gold Complex in the Dryden camp, which contains the Goliath, Goldlund, and Miller deposits, and encompasses approximately 65 kilometers of prospective strike length.

Analysts have also maintained positive ratings on NexGold.

National Bank Financial analyst Alex Terentiew reiterated a "Buy" rating with a CA$5.50 target price, while Red Cloud analyst Ron Stewart, MD, reiterated a "Buy" rating and CA$4.30 target on June 26.

Stewart said he expected first gold production in 2028, initially ramping up to 100,000 ounces annually, with production from Goliath expected later.

"We expect first gold production in 2028 as it ramps up to 100K oz/a initially," Stewart wrote. "Production at Goliath is expected a few years later, taking our modeled production to >200K oz/a by 2032."

¹NexGold Mining Corp. has a market cap of CA$390 million, with 256.5 million shares outstanding. The company's 52-week range is CA$0.77-CA$2.40. Institutions own 66% of shares, while management & insiders own 2%. The remaining 32% of shares are retail. 

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the outlook for gold prices in 2026?

Gold was trading around US$4,400 per ounce on September 9, 2026, and remained approximately 21% higher than a year earlier. Goldman Sachs Research forecast gold reaching US$4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, while Anthony Kim, Global Head of Metals Trading at Goldman Sachs, said the firm remained bullish on gold and viewed approximately US$4,000 per ounce as a solid floor.

Why is the gold price rising in September 2026?

Gold climbed back above US$4,400 per ounce on September 9 as a softer U.S. dollar supported prices. Investors were also monitoring geopolitical tensions, oil prices, upcoming U.S. inflation data, and expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's September interest-rate decision.

Could gold reach US$4,900 per ounce in 2026?

Goldman Sachs Research forecasts gold reaching US$4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026. The firm's outlook cited continued central bank gold purchases and an expected reduction in interest-rate-related headwinds. Goldman also identified potential upside risks beyond its forecast, while noting that increased derivatives activity could contribute to volatility in both directions.

Why are central banks buying gold in 2026?

Central banks have continued accumulating gold as part of efforts to diversify their reserves and manage geopolitical and financial risks. Goldman Sachs Research forecast average central bank purchases of 50 tonnes per month during 2026, compared with an average of 17 tonnes per month in the years before 2022. Ahead of the Herd reported that global official gold reserves had reached approximately 36,600 tonnes.

How does central bank gold buying affect the gold market?

Central banks generally purchase physical gold as a long-term reserve asset. Ahead of the Herd argued that sustained official-sector accumulation removes gold from the available market supply and can provide underlying support for prices. Goldman Sachs Research similarly identified elevated central bank accumulation as a multi-year trend supporting its gold outlook.

What could cause gold prices to fall in 2026?

Higher interest rates remain one potential headwind because they can increase the relative appeal of interest-bearing assets compared with non-yielding gold. Saxo Bank Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen said a break below US$4,300 per ounce could signal a deeper correction toward an established support area around US$4,000. Conversely, he said an improvement in the technical picture could bring US$4,770 into focus.

Is NexGold Mining a gold stock?

NexGold Mining Corp. is advancing gold projects in Canada. Its principal assets discussed in this article include the Goliath Gold Complex in Ontario and the Goldboro Gold Project in Nova Scotia.

What are NexGold Mining's latest Goldlund drill results?

Recent drilling at the Goldlund Deposit included 3.08 grams per tonne gold over 17.0 meters in hole GL-26-026, including 70.20 g/t gold over 0.5 meters and 12.60 g/t over 0.5 meters. Hole GL-26-025 returned 4.80 g/t gold over 5.6 meters, including 16.30 g/t over 0.9 meters, while GL-26-022 intersected 84.30 g/t gold over 1.0 meter.

Why did NexGold expand its Goldlund drilling program?

NexGold expanded its Goldlund diamond drilling program from 25,000 meters to approximately 35,000 meters, a 40% increase. The company cited results received to date and remaining exploration potential within and adjacent to the existing open-pit Mineral Resource. The additional drilling is expected to continue through fall 2026.

Where is NexGold Mining's Goliath Gold Complex?

The Goliath Gold Complex is located in the Dryden camp of Ontario, Canada. The approximately 330-square-kilometer property package contains the Goliath, Goldlund, and Miller deposits and encompasses approximately 65 kilometers of prospective strike length.

What is the Goldlund Deposit?

Goldlund is one of the deposits within NexGold Mining's Goliath Gold Complex in Ontario. Recent drilling has focused on Zone 4 near the northeastern portion of the Goldlund open-pit Mineral Resource, with work designed to provide additional information about the continuity and distribution of gold mineralization.

What are analysts' price targets for NexGold Mining stock?

National Bank Financial analyst Alex Terentiew reiterated a "Buy" rating on NexGold Mining with a CA$5.50 target price. Red Cloud analyst Ron Stewart, MD, reiterated a "Buy" rating and CA$4.30 target price on June 26.

When could NexGold Mining begin gold production?

Red Cloud analyst Ron Stewart wrote that he expected first gold production in 2028, initially ramping up to approximately 100,000 ounces annually. He expected Goliath production to follow several years later, taking his modeled production to more than 200,000 ounces annually by 2032. These figures represent Stewart's analyst expectations rather than the company's production guidance.

What is NexGold Mining doing at the Goldboro Gold Project?

NexGold's 2026 plans for the Goldboro Gold Project in Nova Scotia include an updated Mineral Resource Estimate and Feasibility Study, detailed engineering, procurement planning, project financing work, and preparations toward a final investment and construction decision. The company has also been conducting a 40,000-meter close-spaced infill drilling program targeting near-surface Mineral Resources within the planned west and east pits.

What gold stocks could benefit if gold prices remain high?

Higher gold prices can affect the economics and investor interest surrounding companies throughout the gold sector, although individual company performance depends on project results, costs, financing, permitting, and other factors. NexGold Mining is among the Canadian gold companies currently advancing exploration and development work, including expanded drilling at its Goldlund Deposit in Ontario and work at its Goldboro Gold Project in Nova Scotia.