Antimony Co.'s US$2.7B EXIM Loan Heads to Board Agenda
Research Report

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Disclosures for H.C. Wainwright & Co., Perpetua Resources Corp., May 12, 2026

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H.C. Wainwright & Co. analyst Heiko F. Ihle, CFA, reiterated a Buy rating and US$41.00 price target on Perpetua Resources Corp. (PPTA:TSX; PPTA:NASDAQ), implying roughly 30% upside from the May 11, 2026, closing price of US$31.54, following the company's release of its first-quarter 2026 financial results and the placement of its proposed loan on the U.S. Export-Import Bank (EXIM) board agenda.

In his May 12 research note, Ihle reviewed Perpetua's quarterly results while emphasizing their limited relevance at this stage. "Although we view the firm's current financials as largely irrelevant given PPTA's lack of production, we nonetheless note that the firm reported a net loss of US$48.6M, or (US$0.39) per share," the analyst wrote. This compares to a net loss of US$8.2M, or (US$0.12) per share, in the first quarter of 2025.

The wider loss reflected a significant ramp-up in spending ahead of construction. According to the report, the higher net loss stemmed from a step-up in exploration and pre-development costs, with management spending US$53.1M during the quarter, up from US$13.1M a year ago. Ihle noted that engineering spend rose to US$31.5M from US$5.3M, while field office and drilling support costs climbed to US$10.1M from US$1.4M in the first quarter of 2025.

Perpetua's Board of Directors approved a budget of roughly US$328.0M for the first half of 2026. This consists of US$224.0M for detailed engineering, design work, and procuring equipment, along with US$76.0M for field operations. Management also expects to spend US$20.0M for permit compliance and various other costs. "In short, we highlight the significant spend that should happen at site," Ihle wrote.

The analyst characterized the company's financial position as solid. The firm's balance sheet remained strong, with US$669.5M in cash as of quarter-end, which the report noted allows Perpetua to shoulder expenditures before the closing of its EXIM loan.

EXIM Loan Catalyst

The central focus of the report was the advancement of Perpetua's financing. EXIM's board placed Perpetua's proposed roughly US$2.7B senior secured loan on the agenda for its May 21, 2026, meeting. Ihle cautioned that the agenda is subject to change and that there is no guarantee a vote occurs, but noted that a favorable outcome should unlock a roughly US$2.2B direct loan that, when combined with Perpetua's cash and cash equivalents, fully covers the capital laid out in the updated technical report.

Ihle expressed confidence in the financing regardless of timing. "In our view, the loan should eventually happen regardless, even if the vote gets delayed from the aforementioned meeting, based on the necessity for a domestic antimony supply chain from Stibnite," he wrote.

The analyst identified the EXIM board meeting as the most significant near-term catalyst. He wrote that he views further updates related to project financing and debt funding as the company's primary catalyst, as this meaningfully de-risks the project. Ihle also pointed to the benefits of the Stibnite project from the current commodity price environment and said he plans to monitor progress toward a Final Investment Decision.

Valuation and Risks

Ihle's valuation for Perpetua remained based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis of the company's operations, maintaining a 10.0% discount rate on Stibnite. In his view, this discount rate fairly aligns with other assets in equally favorable jurisdictions that carry similar geopolitical risk factors and appear similarly positioned in the development pipeline.

The overall DCF analysis yielded a combined valuation of US$4.66B, or US$35.52 per share. Ihle then added cash and cash equivalents of US$669.5M, along with a US$35.0M valuation for Perpetua's three key exploration targets, before subtracting the firm's debt. This produced a value of US$5.37B, or US$40.88 per share, which the analyst rounded to his US$41 price target.

The report outlined four primary risks to the thesis: commodity price risks, operating and technical risks, financial risks, and political risks.

With shares trading at US$31.54, the analyst's US$41.00 price target represented a 23.1% discount to the target, according to the report's calculations.