Rare Earth and Graphite Assets in Brazil Offer Major Upside Potential
Research Report

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Disclosures for H.C. Wainwright & Co., Atlas Critical Minerals Corp., April 6, 2026

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Related Companies Mentioned in this Report as of April/3/2026 Company Ticker H.C. Wainwright 12 Month Price Market Rating Price Target Cap Atlas Lithium Corporation ATLX-US Buy $12.50 $4.65 $126 Investment Banking Services include, but are not limited to, acting as a manager/co-manager in the underwriting or placement of securities, acting as financial advisor, and/or providing corporate finance or capital markets-related services to a company or one of its affiliates or subsidiaries within the past 12 months

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H.C. Wainwright initiated coverage on Atlas Critical Minerals Corp. (ATCX; NASDAQ) on April 6, 2026, with a Buy rating and a price target of US$13.75, representing approximately 142% upside to the April 2, 2026, share price of US$5.69.

The firm views ATCX as uniquely positioned to benefit from the structural shift in global critical minerals supply chains, citing the company's large-scale rare earth, titanium, and graphite land package in Brazil and its early-stage but revenue-generating operations.

Company Overview

Atlas Critical Minerals Corporation, formerly Jupiter Gold Corp. prior to its December 2024 rebrand, is a mineral exploration and development company headquartered in Belo Horizonte, Brazil.

The company controls over 218,000 hectares of mineral rights across Minas Gerais and Goiás, targeting rare earth elements (REE), titanium, and graphite. Under the leadership of CEO Marc Fogassa, who simultaneously serves as Chairman and CEO of sister company Atlas Lithium Corporation (ATLX – Nasdaq; Buy, US$12.50 PT), the analyst believes ATCX is well-positioned to navigate the exploration-to-production process in Brazil.

Key Projects and Exploration Results

ATCX's flagship asset is the Alto Paranaíba Project in Minas Gerais, covering approximately 53,692 acres of mineral rights with a dual-commodity profile of high-grade REE and titanium. An initial drill program consisting of 13 holes totaling 144 meters and 178 analyzed samples returned highlights including 28,870 ppm Total Rare Earth Oxides (TREO) and 16.5% TiO₂ from a single surface sample. Notably, the use of thermal pre-treatment (roasting) produced recovery rates of 97.0% for Magnetic Rare Earth Elements (MREE), 95.2% for Light Rare Earth Elements (LREE), and 93.8% for Total Rare Earth Elements plus Yttrium (TREY), all materially above the 70–85% industry norm. Management currently estimates an average resource grade of approximately 4,818 ppm TREO and anticipates a total resource in excess of 2,000 Mt, with the company's maiden Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) expected in late 2026.

The Iporá Rare Earths Project in Goiás spans approximately 46,000 acres across 12 mineral rights within the Goiás Alkaline Province, an area also home to the Serra Verde rare earth mine, described as one of the only integrated REE operations outside of China. A field campaign conducted in mid-2025 returned up to 3,822 ppm TREO over 1 meter with metallurgical recoveries exceeding 60% for critical magnet rare earth oxides.

The Malacacheta Graphite Project in Minas Gerais, covering 1,258 hectares, has produced graphite with 99.9995% carbon purity through non-chemical thermal refinement, meeting nuclear-grade specifications. The analyst notes that nuclear-grade graphite commands a significant pricing premium, estimated at US$25,000–US$35,000 per tonne versus US$2,000–US$2,400 for standard high-quality flake graphite, representing a 10–15x pricing opportunity.

Revenue-Generating Operations

A key differentiator for ATCX relative to standard junior explorers is its existing revenue base. The Rio Piracicaba iron ore asset in Minas Gerais operates under a lease arrangement whereby Vale serves as operator, handling all haulage and processing in exchange for royalty payments to ATCX. The site contains approximately 7.9 Mt of iron ore resources, and the company currently generates roughly US$1.2 million per year from this royalty arrangement.

Operations commenced in late 2025, and management has initiated a process to expand the site's environmental license from 300,000 tonnes per year to 1.5 million tonnes per year. The company also owns a quartzite operation in Minas Gerais that was paused in 2025 but remains fully permitted, with production expected to resume in the near term.

Geopolitical Backdrop and Brazil's Strategic Position

The analyst places significant emphasis on Brazil's role as a global critical minerals supplier. Brazil holds the world's second-largest reserves of REEs, estimated at 21.0 million tonnes, and graphite, estimated at 74.0 million tonnes — making it the only country besides China with REE reserves exceeding 10.0 million tonnes.

The analyst highlights ongoing discussions between the U.S. and Brazil regarding a formal critical minerals partnership, noting that China's aggressive rare earth export restrictions in late 2024 have accelerated Western interest in alternative supply chains. Brazil's energy grid, powered by approximately 88% renewable energy, is cited as an additional advantage for ESG-focused Western buyers.

Valuation

H.C. Wainwright's price target of US$13.75 is derived through a net asset value (NAV) framework. The primary driver is a conservative US$0.10 per tonne valuation applied to an estimated 770.2 Mt potential resource at Alto Paranaíba, yielding US$77.0 million. The firm also applies a DCF to iron ore royalty revenues, producing a present value of approximately US$8.3 million, and assigns a fixed value of US$50.0 million to the Malacacheta and Iporá projects.

After adding cash of US$8.4 million and netting US$0.75 million in debt, total NAV reaches approximately US$143.0 million. Applying a 0.6x NAV multiple to account for the asset base's early-stage nature results in an attributable NAV of approximately US$85.8 million, or US$13.75 per share on a fully diluted basis of 6.2 million shares.

Recent Developments

On January 8, 2026, ATCX raised approximately US$11.0 million in gross proceeds through an IPO on the Nasdaq at US$8.00 per share, with US$1.0 million earmarked for drilling and studies at Malacacheta, US$500,000 for work at Alto Paranaíba and Iporá, and the balance supporting working capital.

On March 10, 2026, ATCX announced the consolidation of an 11-kilometer graphite corridor. On January 26, 2026, the company reported high metallurgical recoveries via its roasting method. The stock previously reached a high of US$43.20 on October 6, 2025, before declining due to limited liquidity and dilution from the public offering.

Risks

The analyst identifies four primary risks: (1) liquidity risk stemming from the capital-intensive nature of exploration; (2) currency risk given ATCX's primary operations in Brazil and exposure to BRL/USD fluctuations; (3) technical risk, as there is no guarantee that viable mineral resources can be defined or converted to mineable reserves; and (4) commodity price risk, as valuations for iron ore, rare earths, and graphite remain outside the company's control and are subject to macroeconomic factors.

Upcoming Catalysts

The analyst identifies the maiden MRE for Alto Paranaíba, expected in late 2026, as the primary near-term catalyst. Additional exploration updates from Malacacheta and Iporá, growth in iron ore royalty revenues, and progress on the option agreement to acquire 60 additional mineral rights from Atlas Lithium covering copper, gold, nickel, graphite, REE, and titanium are also cited as potential positive catalysts.