Co. Withdraws Appeal Involving Gold Developer's Major BC Project

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1. Ownership and Share Structure Information

The information listed above was updated on the date this article was published and was compiled from information from the company and various other data providers.

Seabridge Gold Inc. (SEA:TSX; SA:NYSE.MKT) announced that Tudor Gold Corp. has officially withdrawn its appeal with the Supreme Court of British Columbia concerning a prior decision by the Chief Gold Commissioner (CGC), according to a March 19 release.

This decision, dated May 28, 2025, saw the CGC refuse to consider Tudor's request for a ruling that Seabridge’s KSM Mitchell Treaty Tunnels (MTT) Conditional Mineral Reserve (CMR) should either not be applicable to Tudor or be entirely cancelled.

Tudor's withdrawal from the appeal process effectively accepts the CGC’s original ruling regarding her jurisdiction over the matter. Seabridge initially reported Tudor's move to appeal on July 14, 2025. The CMR in question mandates that the current holders of the mineral claims, which include the path of the MTT, must not disrupt, endanger, or interfere with the MTT’s construction, operation, or maintenance. This stipulation has been upheld by the BC Ministry of Mines representatives repeatedly for more than a decade.

The MTT itself is an essential part of the KSM Project infrastructure, comprising two parallel tunnels that link the eastern and western sections of the mine site. Tudor owns approximately 12.5 kilometers of the mineral claims that the MTT traverses.

Seabridge Chair and Chief Executive Officer Rudi Fronk expressed approval of Tudor’s decision to drop the appeal, which he noted was baseless from the start.

"We applaud Tudor's decision to abandon its appeal, which lacked any merit from the outset," Fronk said. "This action reinforces our position that the authorizations issued in favor of the MTT do not give Seabridge any interest in Tudor’s mineral rights."

Analyst: Several Near-Term Catalysts for Company

On March 12, 2026, RBC Capital Markets analyst Josh Wolfson released a precious metals estimate changes note on Seabridge, maintaining an Outperform rating with a Speculative Risk qualifier and increasing the price target from US$63.00 to US$71.00. This adjustment reflects improved project economics and Seabridge's strong positioning to advance its flagship KSM project. The new US$71.00 price target is derived from a 0.40x target multiple on the firm's NAV₅% estimate, which is a discount compared to peers, accounting for the early-stage nature of the KSM project, potential partnership opportunities, unmodeled resources and projects, and the complexities and costs of construction.

At the time of the report, SA shares were trading at US$33.89 on the NYSE, with the price target suggesting a potential return of about 104%.

KSM, located in British Columbia, is a significant gold-copper asset with enhanced project economics due to an updated Preliminary Feasibility Study (PFS) and improved regional infrastructure, including a paved highway, port, and airstrip. The company is actively seeking a senior partner to further study and potentially construct the project.

Wolfson highlighted several near-term catalysts for Seabridge, including a potential partnership announcement, feasibility study work, further optimization of the KSM project, and exploration results from the Iskut and 3 Aces properties. Financially, Seabridge is a pre-revenue development-stage company with annual corporate costs projected at about CA$18 million. RBC forecasts an adjusted EPS of (CA$0.45) in 2025, improving to (CA$0.19) in 2026, but then widening to (CA$0.39) and (CA$0.89) in 2027 and 2028, respectively, as capital expenditures increase significantly.

The firm's NAV is estimated at US$181.78 per share, with shares currently trading at just 0.19x NAV. The KSM open pit deposits are the primary value driver, estimated at a net asset value of US$18,650 million, or US$178.23 per share. Additional assets include the KSM block cave deposits, Courageous Lake, Iskut, 3 Aces, and Snowstorm.

Capital expenditure requirements are substantial, with RBC modeling approximately CA$214 million in 2026, escalating to CA$3.2 billion in 2027 and CA$3.5 billion in 2028 as potential construction begins, resulting in deeply negative free cash flow through the forecast horizon. Total Proven & Probable Reserves stand at 53.8 million ounces of gold and 7.3 billion pounds of copper, with Total Measured & Indicated resources of 100.5 million ounces of gold and 20.1 billion pounds of copper.

Wolfson also outlined several key risks, including partnership risk, which is crucial as Seabridge's valuation and recommendation "largely depend on Seabridge finding first a partner to advance and fund a feasibility study, and then to assume operatorship of the project through construction and production." Other risks include sensitivity to gold and copper prices, uncertainty in construction capital expenditures, the project's remoteness and weather challenges, permitting requirements, project financing dependent on a future partnership, and potential opposition from local groups.

Cantor Fitzgerald recently increased its target price for Seabridge following an upward revision of its gold and silver price forecasts, according to Mike Kozak in a macro note dated January 12. The financial services firm anticipates that the rising prices of gold and silver will start to significantly enhance Seabridge's margins, earnings, and cash flow beginning with the fourth quarter of 2025 results, which are expected to be reported in late February, and will further accelerate in the first quarter of 2026.

Cantor has set a new target price for Seabridge at CA$66 per share, which implies a 72% return, as highlighted by Kozak. The firm maintains a Buy rating on the company.

'A Rare Convergence of Factors'

Technical Analyst John Newell of Newell & Associates, in a recent article for Streetwise Reports dated December 23, 2025, highlighted Seabridge Gold Inc.'s strategic management of the KSM project, one of the world's largest undeveloped gold-copper ventures. Over the past two decades, Seabridge has carefully assembled, permitted, and developed KSM, positioning it to leverage emerging favorable market conditions both fundamentally and technically. The project, which is fully permitted and bolstered by strong Indigenous agreements, is on track to become a significant multi-decade production project on a global scale.

With gold and copper prices on the rise, the market is beginning to recognize the significant leverage that KSM holds. Newell pointed out that Seabridge shares are currently breaking out from a multi-year base that has been forming for over a decade.

He explained, "From a technical perspective, Seabridge shares are emerging from a multi-year base that spans more than a decade. Breakouts of this magnitude are typically driven by fundamental re-rating events, not short-term momentum. The combination of rising gold prices, advancing partnership discussions at KSM, and a clear plan to unlock value from Courageous Lake creates a rare convergence of factors."

Newell has rated Seabridge as a Speculative Buy, noting it as a compelling choice "for investors who understand the power of scale, scarcity, and optionality in a new gold cycle. With two world-class assets now on separate paths, and a long-term chart pointing higher, Seabridge offers leverage that is increasingly difficult to find in the gold sector."

The Catalyst: Gold Recovers, But Still Volatile

On Tuesday, gold prices experienced a slight recovery from earlier declines but remained deep in bear market territory, influenced by a strengthening U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields which have diminished the appeal of the precious metal, according to a March 24 report on CNBC by Joseph Wilkins and Lee Ying Shan. Spot gold was observed trading down by 1% at US$4,370.29 per ounce, while gold futures for April delivery decreased by 0.8% to US$4,371.50 per ounce.

The dollar index, a gauge of the U.S. dollar's value against a basket of foreign currencies, saw an increase of 0.4% on the same day. The strengthening dollar adversely affects the price of gold, which is priced in dollars, as it becomes more costly for investors holding other currencies.

Since reaching a record peak of US$5,594.82 per ounce at the end of January, spot gold has shed 21% of its value. This includes a nearly 10% drop last week, marking its most significant decline since September 2011. Concurrently, the dollar index has risen approximately 3% since the onset of the war.

Market analysts, including Rajat Bhattacharya, a senior investment strategist at Standard Chartered, have noted a combination of macroeconomic factors and market positioning contributing to gold's recent price movements.

"Although gold initially gained due to safe haven demand at the start of the [Iran] conflict, prices have recently pulled back," Bhattacharya explained in an email to CNBC. He further elaborated that such patterns are common during times of increased market volatility, as investors might liquidate holdings to cover margin calls or to lock in profits. Additionally, he pointed out that the dollar's recent surge has also dampened demand for gold.

Central bank demand has significantly fueled the rally in gold prices since late 2022, but this trend may be waning as the ongoing war in Iran shifts global priorities towards energy security and economic stability, potentially sidelining reserve diversification efforts, noted Neils Christensen for Kitco News on March 23. This comes at a critical time for the gold market, which has just seen its steepest weekly drop since the 1980s.

Rob Haworth, Senior Investment Strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, noted that gold reached a speculative peak earlier this year and, despite achieving record highs in late January, has since struggled to maintain momentum amidst escalating geopolitical tensions — a notable deviation from its usual role as a safe haven.

Haworth suggests that this anomaly in gold's behavior signals a larger transformation in market dynamics, where rising nominal and real interest rates are diminishing the attractiveness of the metal. Contrary to expectations, investors are opting for liquidity, primarily the U.S. dollar, over traditional safe havens like gold or Treasuries, even as government bond yields hit multi-month highs due to inflation and supply concerns.

He pointed out that even inflation-protected securities (TIPS) are vulnerable, stating, "They're duration-sensitive too, and you've got higher real yields moving up, so they're getting hurt."

Additionally, speculative positioning in gold is increasingly becoming a challenge. Haworth highlighted that the US$4,500 level is a critical psychological barrier, with potential for further declines if market pressures force investors to liquidate positions. "Speculators are now faced with a difficult decision. I think many were trying to wait out the volatility in February, just waiting to see what would happen, but a lot of that money is now underwater," he remarked. "It might only get worse."

Ownership and Share Structure¹

Management and insiders hold approximately 3% of the company, while institutions own about 62%. The remainder is held by retail investors.

Friedberg Mercantile Group Ltd. holds 15.49%, Pan Atlantic Bank and Trust owns 10.23%, Van Eck Associates Corp. has 6.86%, and Kopernik Global Investors L.L.C. possesses 6.69%.

There are around 104.35 million shares outstanding, with the company having a market cap of CA$3.68 billion and trading within a 52-week range of CA$13.44 to CA$54.29.