On March 20, 2026, Jake Sekelsky of Alliance Global Partners (A.G.P.) published a company update on Almonty Industries Inc. (AII:TSX; ALM:NASDAQ; ALL:ASX; ALI:Frankfurt), reiterating a Buy rating and increasing the price target to US$19.25 from US$14.00 per share.
The increased price target is driven primarily by a revision to the firm's long-term tungsten price deck to US$1,000/MTU from US$850/MTU, which the analyst notes remains well below spot APT prices of above US$2,000/tonne.
The valuation is based on a net asset value (NAV) analysis of ALM's Sangdong, Panasqueira, and Korea moly deposit assets using an 8% discount rate.
2025 Financial Results
ALM reported full-year 2025 revenue of CA$32.5 million, coming in below the firm's estimate of CA$41.5 million. The shortfall was attributed primarily to lower-than-expected fourth-quarter sales volumes at the company's Panasqueira tungsten mine in Portugal.
On an earnings basis, ALM posted a full-year 2025 EPS loss of CA$(0.78). Despite the soft results, Sekelsky characterizes the 2025 figures as "less meaningful relative to our bullish stance on ALM going forward," given the transformational catalysts on the horizon.
Sangdong Mine: The Primary Growth Engine
The report highlights the completion of Phase 1 commissioning at ALM's flagship Sangdong tungsten mine in South Korea, which the analyst describes as one of the largest and highest-grade tungsten mines in the world. During late Q4 2025, ALM announced delivery of the first truckload of run-of-mine (RoM) ore at Sangdong, marking the official transition from development to active mining.
Phase 1 commissioning was completed earlier this week. The analyst expects a ramp-up to Phase 1 capacity of 2,300 tonnes per annum (tpa) of tungsten concentrate in the coming quarters, which should drive increased cash flow levels in the second half of 2026. Phase 2 expansion at Sangdong is expected to come online next year, effectively doubling production capacity to 4,600 tpa. The report notes that this represents approximately 40% of worldwide tungsten production outside of China. Overall, Sangdong is expected to pave the way for an approximate fourfold increase in ALM's consolidated production profile.
Gunteng Browns Project in Montana
With Sangdong construction and development now complete and tungsten prices reaching fresh all-time highs, management is expected to advance the recently acquired Gunteng Browns tungsten project in Montana toward production.
The analyst expects ALM to leverage its proven expertise in tungsten processing and project development with the goal of restarting production at the mine by the end of 2026 at an initial throughput capacity of 140,000 tpa. While this throughput is significantly below Sangdong's Phase 1 capacity of 640,000 tonnes, the report emphasizes that establishing tungsten production in the United States is crucial for securing America's critical minerals supply chain.
Updated Estimates
The firm has significantly raised its forward estimates for ALM. For fiscal 2026, revenue is now estimated at CA$297 million (up from the prior estimate of CA$203 million), with EPS projected at CA$0.47 (previously CA$0.26). For fiscal 2027, the firm forecasts revenue of CA$593 million (up from CA$336 million) and EPS of CA$0.91 (up from CA$0.47). On a quarterly basis for 2026, revenue estimates ramp from CA$31 million in Q1 to CA$124 million in Q4, reflecting the expected production build at Sangdong.
Risks
Key risks cited in the report include commodity price risk, as a significant decline in tungsten prices could negatively impact margins and management's decision to expand production. Additional risks include political risk related to assets in Portugal and South Korea (though considered remote given the jurisdictions), permitting risk tied to regulatory changes that could affect operations, financial risk as additional capital may be required for expansion and vertical integration, and operational risk from potential disruptions similar to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Analyst Outlook and Stock Information
Sekelsky views ALM as the leader in the tungsten space and considers the company to be "the primary avenue for investors to gain exposure to tungsten prices going forward." At the time of publication, ALM shares were trading at US$17.78, implying approximately 8.3% upside to the US$19.25 price target.
The stock has a 52-week range of US$1.97 to US$22.55, approximately 262.78 million shares outstanding, and a three-month average daily trading volume of roughly 4.68 million shares. The analyst assigns a volatility rating of 4, indicating higher-than-average price fluctuations expected over a 12-month period.
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Disclosures for Alliance Global, Almonty Industries, March 20, 2026
Disclosures "Firm" used in the this section of the report entitled "Disclosures" refers to A.G.P. / Alliance Global Partners or Euro Pacific Capital, a division of A.G.P. / Alliance Global Partners. The Firm expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from all companies under research coverage within the next three months. The Firm or its officers, employees or affiliates, other than the research analyst authoring this report and his/her supervisor, may execute transactions in securities mentioned in this report that may not be consistent with the report’s conclusions. Sources referenced in this report: The information and statistics in this report have been obtained from sources we believe are reliable but we do not warrant their accurance or completeness. Acted as Financial Advisor Disclosure - The Firm or its affiliates have acted as financial advisor in the last 12 months for Almonty Industries. As such, the Firm or its affiliates have received compensation for these "investment banking services" in the last twelve months. Manager/Comanager Disclosure - The Firm or its affiliates have managed, co-managed or participated as an underwriter in a public or private offering of securities for Almonty Industries in the last 12 months. As such, the Firm or its affiliates has received compensation for these "investment banking services" in the last twelve months. Regulation Analyst Certification ("Reg AC") — The views expressed in this report (which include the actual rating assigned to the company as well as the analytical substance and tone of the report) accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) covering the subject securities. An analyst's sector is the universe of companies for which the analyst provides research coverage. Accordingly, the rating assigned to a particular stock represents solely the analyst's view of how that stock will perform over the next 12 months relative to the analyst's sector average. Furthermore, in accordance with FINRA Rules 2711, 2241, and their amendments related to disclosure of conflicts of interest, the analyst preparing this report certifies: • The analyst or member of the analyst's household does not have a financial interest in the company that is the subject of this report, including a position in the debt or equity of the company, without limitation, whether it consists of any option, right, warrant, future, long or short position. • The analyst or member of the analyst's household does not serve as officer, director or advisory board member of the company that is the subject of this report.• The analyst has not received any compensation from the subject company or from investment banking revenues, directly or indirectly, for preparing this report. • The report discloses all material conflicts of interest related to the analyst, the member firm, and the subject company that are known at the time of publishing this report. Ratings Buy: Expected to materially outperform sector average over 12 months and indicates total return of at least 10% over the next 12 months. Neutral: Returns expected to be in line with sector average over 12 months and indicates total return between negative 10% and 10% over the next 12 months. Sell: Returns expected to be materially below sector average over 12 months and indicates total price decline of at least 10% over the next 12 months. Not Rated: We have not established a rating on the stock. Under Review: The rating will be updated soon pending information disclosed from a near-term news event. Volatility Index 1 (Low): Little to no sharp movement in stock price in a 12 month period 2 (Low to medium): Modest changes in stock price in a 12 month period 3 (Medium): Average fluctuation in stock price in a 12 month period 4 (Medium to High): Higher than average changes in stock price in a 12 month period 5 (High): Extremely sharp movements in stock price in a 12 month period All financial information is taken from company disclosures and presentations (including Form 10Q, 10K and 8K filings and other public announcements), unless otherwise noted. Any prices or quotations contained herein are indicative only and are not a commitment by A.G.P. / Alliance Global Partners to trade at any price. If A.G.P. / Alliance Global Partners acts in a principal capacity with respect to the instruments mentioned herein it will be disclosed in the previous section of this report entitled “Disclosures.” In the event that A.G.P. / Alliance Global Partners does act in a principal capacity, the commentary is therefore not independent from the proprietary interests of A.G.P. / Alliance Global Partners, which interests may conflict with your interests. Opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other divisions and/or business units of A.G.P. / Alliance Global Partners. The Firm does not undertake any obligation to update this material. This material is current as of the indicated date and as of the time it was sent to you. This material was prepared from information believed to be reliable, but A.G.P. / Alliance Global Partners makes no representations or warranties as to its accuracy or completeness. This communication and the information contained herein is neither an offer to buy or sell nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any particular trading strategy. This report should not be used as a complete analysis of the company, industry or security discussed in the report. Additional information is available upon request. Any opinions or estimates in this report are subject to change without notice. An investment in the stock may involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. Additionally, an investment in the stock may involve a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. No part of this report may be reproduced without the express written permission of A.G.P. / Alliance Global Partners, member FINRA/SIPC. Copyright 2026.
