ThinkEquity Morning Briefing: Complacency Is Creating a Dangerous Market
Morning Brief

Disclosures for Think Equity Morning Brief, January 30, 2026

Sources: Bloomberg LP; The Wall Street Journal

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(Bloomberg) -- Stocks are slipping after the latest escalation in the Middle East, with Israel and Iran trading strikes on energy facilities. While some froth has been taken out, "we still see complacency," said JPMorgan strategists. The market seems to be pricing in a quick end to the war, which is "a high-risk assumption."

S&P 500 futures were 0.2% lower as of 5:25 a.m. in New York, with Nasdaq 100 contracts -0.3%. In Europe, natural gas soared as much as 35% after damage to the world's largest liquefied natural gas export plant. Copper, often considered a barometer of global growth, wiped out year-to-date gains. And WTI is trading around $97 — with its discount to global Brent widening as traders speculate about whether the US will intervene in oil futures markets.

Trump called for de-escalation after Iran unleashed waves of retaliatory strikes on energy facilities following Israeli fire on the South Pars gas field. The US wasn't involved in that attack, Trump said, adding that any additional attacks by Iran on Qatar's LNG facilities would prompt the US to "massively blow up the entirety" of the South Pars field.

For JPMorgan strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, the market's reaction to all this is too complacent. He notes that S&P 500 and oil correlations usually turn increasingly more negative after a 30% oil spike, and thinks not enough attention is being paid to the "bigger and more consequential question" of a negative impact on demand if the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen.

The Fed's message that further interest-rate cuts are far from guaranteed finally fully sunk in for bond traders, who will be watching updates from other central banks including the Bank of England and the ECB in the next few hours. The Bank of Japan kept policy rates unchanged but added the Middle East to its list of risk factors without altering its inflation outlook, suggesting it still sees a potential path to raise rates in coming months.

In AI news, HSBC is said to be weighing deep job cuts, betting on AI to shrink its middle and back offices. Micron shares are lower in premarket trading after the chipmaker warned it will need to spend heavily on production to meet booming demand, overshadowing an upbeat forecast. And Tencent's shares plunged after it failed to deliver a clearer vision of how it'll profit off agentic AI, with investors disappointed by a lack of new targets or products.

War headlines dominate the market, but tariffs haven't gone away. The number of companies suing for tariff refunds has surged in recent weeks, with nearly 1,000 new cases filed since March 1, including from the companies behind Versace and Adidas and shipping giant DHL Express. And the EU is moving forward in approving a trade agreement with the US.

In other corporate news, last week's cyberattack against Stryker has delayed surgeries for some patients. Elliott Investment Management is said to have built a significant stake in Align Technology, the maker of Invisalign teeth-straightening products. And a study in The Lancet Psychiatry journal showed that Novo Nordisk's Ozempic and Wegovy were linked to mental health benefits.

Earnings: Accenture and Darden Restaurants are among companies expected to report results before the market open. Accenture management comments could highlight worsening discretionary IT spending amid increased geopolitical tensions, according to BI. Earnings from Fedex follow later.

Economy: Philadelphia Fed business outlook and initial jobless claims through March 14 are due 8.30 a.m. That's followed by leading index for February, new home sales for January and a final reading of wholesale inventories for January — all scheduled for 10 a.m. 

Equity Insights:

• The amount invested by retail investors shrunk by about 15% compared to last week, according to JPMorgan, bringing the overall decline since the start of the Iran conflict to around 43% as oil price uncertainty weighs on risk appetite.
• The S&P 500 moved closer to its 200-day moving average on Wednesday, which many predict will mark a bottom for the benchmark. However, BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky sees the level — currently at 6,615.70 points — as "unlikely to hold."
• Market volatility and sector rotations have "weighed heavily" on hedge fund performance this month with global fundamental long/short funds down 3.9% so far in March, while fundamental long/short "alpha" funds are down 1.25%, according to Goldman Sachs's Prime Services desk.
• Last week, BofA clients drove record inflows into industrial stocks on the basis of weekly data stretching back to 2008, while financials stocks extended their selling streak to a 10th week.
• Volatility has receded from stocks with the VIX index falling by around five points since the start of the week, causing its futures contract curve to un-invert and exit stress territory.

US Premarket Movers of Note:

• FIVE US (+8.4%): Five Below Tops Full-Year Outlook Aided by Store Openings
• ALGN US (+5%): Elliott Said to Build Stake in Invisalign-Maker Align Technology
• CF US (+3.0%): CF Industries Cut at Mizuho on ‘Overdone' War-Related Rally
• MSTR US (-2.1%): Gemini Cut to Sell, Strategy PT Cut at Citi on Bitcoin Price
• FCX US (-3.2%), RGLD US (-3.4%), AA US (-3.8%), NEM US (-7.0%), HL US (-7.2%), CDE US (-7.8%), AU US (-9.2%): Miners Decline as Copper Slides, Gold Falls for Seventh Day
• MU US (-5.0%): Micron's Heavy Factory Spending Overshadows Booming Memory Sales
• SNDK US (-4.9%), STX US (-1.9%)

M&A:

• US regulators are seeking additional information about Union Pacific's proposed takeover of Norfolk Southern, an unexpected hurdle for the rail industry's biggest-ever deal.
• Kraft Heinz and Unilever recently held talks on a merger of their food brands, the FT reported; discussions ended before Kraft Heinz's decision in February to halt a planned break-up.
• Constellation Energy agreed to sell a portfolio of US electric-generation assets to LS Power for about $5 billion, following through on mandated divestitures.

ECM: 

• Existing investors in Guardian Pharmacy Services are seeking to raise as much as $158 million from an overnight stock sale marketed at $30.60 to $31.60 per share,

Macro:

• The ECB is set to keep the deposit rate at 2% — where its been since last June — according to a unanimous Bloomberg survey. While most economists see borrowing costs staying there through year-end, traders are betting on at least one hike.
• UK unemployment held steady and employers hired more staff in early signs that the labor market may be stabilizing ahead of the Bank of England's interest-rate decision later today.
• The US intelligence community's annual threat assessment said China has no set timeline to unify with Taiwan and would rather do so "without the use of force, if possible."

Europe/Asia:

Europe Trading: European stocks plunged for a second day as energy prices jumped after intensifying attacks on key infrastructure in the Middle East. Miners and travel stocks led declines while the energy sector outperformed.

Asia Trading: Asian stocks declined, snapping a three-day advance, as surging energy prices and warnings from policymakers about a weakening economic outlook damped risk appetite. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 2.2%. All major markets in the region were in the red, led by losses in Japan and South Korea

Other Company News:

• JPMorgan Shut China Tycoon's Account That Made Millions for Bank
• Tiny AI Drone Technology Company Surges 1,000% in Two Days
• Samsung to Spend $73 Billion on Chip Expansion, Research in 2026
• BlackRock, Taiwan's Cathay Mull Aladdin Deal Amid Asset Hub Push
• Wells Fargo Is Said to Hire UBS's Keller to Lead M&A Structuring
• John Deere, Tractor Supply CEOs to Join Trump at White House
• Breakup Stocks Outpace the S&P 500 With Conglomerates Lagging
• Musk Says Single AI6 Chip Has Potential to Match Dual SoC AI5
• Oil Giants Bid $163 Million in Trump's Record Alaska Lease Sale
• Constellation Sells PJM Assets to LS Power in $5b Deal
• US Explored Tying Naval Escorts in Hormuz to Govt. Insurance: FT
• Musk: SpaceX AI, Tesla to Continue Nvidia Chip Orders at Scale
• Meeting Surging Demand for AI Memory Chips Has a Climate Cost
• Consumer Staples Lead Declines on Fed Day: S&P 500 Sector Wrap
• Iran War May Delay Deals, Not Derail M&A: Lazard's McMaster
• Prysmian Eyes New Texas Copper Mill, Deals Amid Data Center Boom
• Ares Weighs Raising Stake in Eni's Plenitude Above 20%: Corriere
• Switzerland Feb. Watch Exports Rise 9.2% Y/Y
• Pepsi Put Spreads, Bond ETF Calls Sold: US Options Snapshot
• Silver Lake-Backed Relativity Said to Tap Banks for US IPO
• Fibra Next Says It Will Carry Out Public Offering for Macquarie
• Rocket Lab Jumps on $190m Hypersonic Flight Contract
• Global Deregulation Shift to Spur Bank Deal Wave, KBW CEO Says
• California AG Files Suit Seeking to Block Nexstar-Tegna Merger
• Sumitomo Corp. Licenses Palantir AI For Oil Country Tubular Ops.

ECO CALENDAR (All times ET):

• 8:30 am: United States Mar 14 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 215k, prior 213k
• 8:30 am: United States Mar 7 Continuing Claims, est. 1852k, prior 1850k
• 8:30 am: United States Mar Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, est. 8, prior 16.3
• 10:00 am: United States Feb Leading Index, est. -0.1%, prior -0.2%
• 10:00 am: United States Jan New Home Sales, est. 721.5k, prior 745k
• 10:00 am: United States Jan F Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
• United States Jan F Building Permits, est. 1380k, prior 1376k

Main Rating Changes:

Upgrades:

• Carnival Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $31
• Mastercard Raised to Outperform at BNP Paribas; PT $600
• Nubank Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $17.60
• Tandem Diabetes Raised to Buy at Truist Secs; PT $35

Downgrades:

• Kinsale Capital Cut to Underperform at Jefferies; PT $312
• Micron Cut to Hold at Summit Insights

Initiations:

• ADP Rated New Buy as Guggenheim Says AI Fears Are Overdone
• Globe Life Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $170
• Okta Rated New Outperform at Macquarie; PT $100
• Paychex Rated New Neutral at Guggenheim
• Rocket Lab Rated New Buy at Clear Street; PT $88
• Slide Insurance Rated New Buy at Texas Capital; PT $25
• SoFi Technologies Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $19