As one of the most contrarian voices in the resource industry, I've been keenly watching the recent meteoric rise of gold, silver, platinum, and copper prices to record heights. While sensible investors might be expecting a significant correction, maybe even a 50% retracement like gold saw in the mid-1970s amidst a historic bull run, sometimes what seems logical turns out to be wrong.
I religiously monitor the Daily Sentiment Indicator (DSI) and was stunned last Friday to see gold at 64 and silver at 62, markedly down from gold's 85 peak nearly a month prior. This doesn't signal a top to me, and remarkably, sentiment has waned for all metals despite their ascent to all-time highs.
The DSI is hands down the most potent sentiment gauge I know of. I wielded it masterfully in late April 2011 when I precisely timed silver's zenith, much to the chagrin of perma-bulls. But the DSI hit 96% then, versus only 94% on that fateful January day in 1980.
Silver is a personal favorite, so I also track the premium/discount of the Sprott Silver ETF (PSLV). Astonishingly, last Friday, PSLV traded at a 4.7% discount, not the premium you'd anticipate at a market top. The discount has only exceeded this three times since March 2020, when it plummeted to 10% right as silver bottomed. Contrast that with the staggering 26% premium when silver peaked in April 2011.
We're in a peculiar time. Parabolic surges in metal prices have consistently signaled major tops historically. Yet this instance feels unique. All the telltale sentiment indicators that ought to be howling "TOP" suggest we're nowhere near a significant peak or even a sizable pullback.
I suspect it's due to who's really driving metal prices. The assaults on Venezuela and the imminent massive bombardment of Iran aren't really about those nations — they're a proxy war against China. One of China's best defenses is to go after the U.S. financial system by dumping Treasuries and hoarding metals.
I'm a huge proponent of buying low and selling high. Silver, gold, platinum, and copper are no longer bargains, even if they're still cheap relative to their potential upside. I counseled people for years to scoop them up when they were dirt cheap, so if you listened and loaded up on sub-US$5 silver and sub-US$300 gold, you're sitting pretty. But there's something ludicrously undervalued given US$90 silver and US$4,600 gold — something that hasn't kept pace with the metals' skyrocketing trajectory.
I'm talking about junior resource stocks. The combined market cap of all sub-US$100 million juniors is a paltry US$14 billion. That's peanuts when you recall Doggy Coin's US$90 billion valuation or Fart Coin's. Their speculative appeal, and that's all they ever were, stemmed solely from their asinine names.
Where silver and gold prices ultimately stabilize hinges on the Chinese. But compared to current gold and silver prices, penny resource stocks are laughably cheap.
About a month ago, I brought on a new advertiser, Tiger Gold Corp. (TIGR:CVE). In my quarter-century in this business, the only more impeccable market timing was Frank Giustra's return to gold in 2001 after cashing out of Lions Gate Films. He astutely realized the mining sector would be radioactive for years after Bre-X imploded in 1997.
Tiger's timing was equally brilliant.
In December 2024, with gold just north of US$2,600, Tiger inked an option to acquire 100% of the Quinchia Gold property in Colombia's prolific Middle Cauca belt. The deal entailed AU$14 million in staged payments through to first pour, with an ongoing 1% NSR to LCL after FirstRand's 2% NSR (capped at AU$14M) is satisfied.
Quinchia comprises three key assets: Miraflores with a 43-101 resource totaling 510,000 ounces grading a touch over 2.6 g/t Au, Tesorito hosting 1.57 million ounces at 0.47 g/t (which sounds low until you consider a single gram of gold fetches US$148 these days), and Dos Quebradas with a historical JORC resource of 459,000 ounces at 0.71 g/t.
The 2025 PEA points to a CA$534 million NPV5% at US$2,650 gold and CA$1.188 billion NPV at US$3,700 gold, yielding a robust 36.5% IRR. Today's loftier prices imply an even higher NPV. Tiger aims to churn out around 140,000 ounces annually at life-of-mine AISC of CA$1,340/oz.
Tiger's presentation convincingly shows how undervalued it is relative to peers. All juniors are cheap, but Tiger is exceptionally so.
November saw Tiger kick off the first of two planned 10,000m drill campaigns aimed at both resource growth and exploration. Three rigs will be churning by January's end, with another 10,000m to follow later in 2023. With CA$19 million in the bank, Tiger is fully funded, so expect a steady flow of results.
Tiger's management, both corporate and technical, is as strong as any Colombian junior I'm aware of. Their professionalism in every facet, from acquisition to production plans, is top-notch. And yes, they're dirt cheap.
Tiger Gold is an advertiser, and I participated in their latest financing, so naturally, I'm biased. Their slick presentation is a must-read before investing. As always, do your own due diligence.
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Important Disclosures:
- Bob Moriarty: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: Tiger Gold Corp. My company has a financial relationship with Tiger Gold Corp. My company has purchased stocks mentioned in this article for my management clients: None. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
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