TRX Gold Corp.'s (TNX:TSX; TRX:NYSE.American) Q1 FY26 financial results are notable for increased year-over-year (YOH) revenue, reported H.C. Wainwright & Co. (HCW) Analyst Heiko Ihle in a Jan. 16 research note.
HCW raised its target price on the Canadian gold producer by 7% to reflect the investment bank's higher gold price assumption.
"We are quite pleased with TRX's fairly strong Q1 FY26 results," Ihle wrote. "More importantly, however, we stress the company's ongoing growth over the last year."
50% Return Implied
HCW's new target price on TRX is US$1.50 per share (US$1.50/share), up from US$1.40/share before. The target is based in part on the bank's new long-term gold price estimate of US$3,750 per ounce (US$3,750/oz), which is still conservative. Its previous price estimate was US$3,000/oz.
Compared to the new US$1.50/share target price, the Ontario-based gold company was trading at about US$1/share at the time of Ihle's report. The difference between these prices suggests a possible return for investors of 50%.
TRX remains a Buy.
The company has 287 million shares outstanding. Its market cap is US$287 million (US$287M). Its 52-week price range is US$0.27–1.02/share.
Takeaways From Results
TRX is producing gold at its Buckreef project in Tanzania. During Q1 FY26, the company generated US$25.1M in revenue, more than double its US$12.5M revenue a year earlier, Ihle reported. This was mostly due to a higher realized gold price that averaged US$3,860/oz, but also sales of 35% more gold (a total of 6,492 ounces) YOY.
During this first quarter, the miner incurred a net loss of US$4.2M, or US$0.01/share. In contrast, TRX was in the black in Q1 FY25, with a net income gain of US$1M, or US$0.00/share.
Recently, TRX started mining areas containing higher-grade ore, and its gold grade is already up 46% YOY. The grade in Q1 FY26 was 1.88 grams per ton (1.88 g/t) versus 1.29 g/t in Q1 FY25. With higher gold prices and recent upgrades to its mill, the company is well-positioned to take advantage of mining higher grades.
"Looking ahead, the firm remains on track to meet its FY26 production guidance of 25,000–30,000 ounces of gold," wrote Ihle.
Plant Expansion Progressing
TRX's expanding and upgrading its processing plant at Buckreef continue, with equipment components being acquired and built. Construction is expected to be done this year.
The enhancements, including a 3,000 ton per day (3 Ktpd) sulphide circuit and a 1 Ktpd oxide/transition circuit, should improve performance and reliability, noted Ihle. Also, they should allow TRX to target average gold production above the 62,000 ounces outlined in the most recent preliminary economic assessment (PEA).
"We remain confident in the firm's progress on its expansion, which should ultimately surpass expectations from the PEA, given management's history of successfully delivering on prior expansion plans," the analyst wrote.
The gold producer is funding this plant project with cash flow from operations. HCW expects such cash flow will increase steadily as TRX targets higher-grade ore bodies and gold prices remain high (above US$4,600/oz).
Other Work in Progress
TRX continues with metallurgical testing of ore from Buckreef's Main zone, reported Ihle. Thus far, gold deportment, flotation, leach optimization, and mill circuit design all have shown recoveries ranging from 88–91.5%. Final results are expected in Q2 FY26.
Also underway is the producer's 2026 exploration program, designed to identify structural features and potential drill targets. Geological interpretation is anticipated for Q2 FY26.
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Disclosures for H.C. Wainwright & Co., TRX Gold Corp., January 16, 2026
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H.C. Wainwright & Co, LLC (the “Firm”) is a member of FINRA and SIPC and a registered U.S. Broker-Dealer. I, Heiko F. Ihle, CFA , certify that 1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about any and all subject securities or issuers discussed; and 2) no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in this research report; and 3) neither myself nor any members of my household is an officer, director or advisory board member of these companies. None of the research analysts or the research analyst’s household has a financial interest in the securities of TRX Gold Corporation (including, without limitation, any option, right, warrant, future, long or short position). As of December 31, 2025 neither the Firm nor its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of TRX Gold Corporation. Neither the research analyst nor the Firm knows or has reason to know of any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this research report.
The research analyst principally responsible for preparation of the report does not receive compensation that is based upon any specific investment banking services or transaction but is compensated based on factors including total revenue and profitability of the Firm, a substantial portion of which is derived from investment banking services. The Firm or its affiliates did receive compensation from TRX Gold Corporation for investment banking services within twelve months before, and will seek compensation from the companies mentioned in this report for investment banking services within three months following publication of the research report. H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for TRX Gold Corporation during the past 12 months. The Firm does not make a market in TRX Gold Corporation as of the date of this research report. The securities of the company discussed in this report may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This report is offered for informational purposes only, and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities discussed herein in any jurisdiction where such would be prohibited. This research report is not intended to provide tax advice or to be used to provide tax advice to any person. Electronic versions of H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC research reports are made available to all clients simultaneously. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form without the expressed permission of H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC. Additional information available upon request. H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC does not provide individually tailored investment advice in research reports. This research report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in financial instruments and implementing investment strategies discussed or recommended in this research report. H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC’s and its affiliates’ salespeople, traders, and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research report. H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC and its affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding its analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives (including options and warrants) thereof of covered companies referred to in this research report. The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed by us as being accurate and does not purport to be a complete statement or summary of the available data on the company, industry or security discussed in the report. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute the analyst’s judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Securities and other financial instruments discussed in this research report: may lose value; are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation; and are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of the principal amount invested.
