Silver pushing through $40 is not just another rally. For more than 10 years the $30 to $35 zone capped every attempt to run. That resistance is gone. The long base that formed after 2011 functions like a spring.
Once released, moves tend to travel farther and faster than most expect. Using the rhythm of prior cycles, the next logical price target and resistance is the old all-time 1980 high, and the 2011 high, which sits near $50. The working target from my 2024 work was $35 to $38, which has now been met.
The next chart targets line up near $70, with a longer view that points to $100 to $120 if this cycle rhymes with the late-1970s and the post-2008 expansions.
The Gold to Silver Ratio
At the start of 2024, it took nearly 90 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold. Today, that number has fallen closer to 86. In past bull markets, once this ratio begins to fall, it rarely stops at these levels.
Historically, it has often dropped all the way to 30–40 ounces of silver per ounce of gold, and in 2011 it reached as low as the low-30s.
If gold prices continue higher and the ratio keeps moving back toward those historical ranges, silver could dramatically outperform. Put simply, the fewer ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold, the more silver is being revalued upward relative to gold.
Supply and Demand
Silver's two identities create a unique setup. As money, it benefits when investors seek safety. As an industrial metal, it is consumed by the very technologies that appear to be defining this decade. Most silver arrives as a by-product of copper, lead, and zinc mines, so mine supply does not respond quickly to price.
At the same time, demand from solar, electronics, EVs, and medical uses removes metal from circulation for years. Deficits in recent years have drawn down inventories. A market that is slow on the supply side and sticky on the demand side behaves like a pressure cooker, building power. The longer it consolidates, the sharper the release when recognition spreads.
Structural Drivers Still Intact
The foundation of this move is not a headline or a single price. It is a set of slow forces that compound. Global electrification keeps raising the baseline for industrial demand. Recycling helps, but it cannot keep up because much of the metal is dispersed in tiny amounts across billions of devices and panels.
On the monetary side, policymakers have eased financial conditions whenever growth wobbled. That backdrop tends to support precious metals. Put together, you have inelastic supply, rising structural demand, and a financial landscape that does not penalize holding metal.
Momentum and Psychology
Markets move when people change their minds. After a long period of neglect, silver's first break through $30 flipped the narrative from "range bound" to "emerging trend." The push through $40 is the second recognition event. Momentum attracts attention, attention invites money flows, and flows reinforce price and send it higher in this case.
That feedback loop explains why prior silver bull legs often traveled faster than gold and overshot analyst targets. Volatility is part of the journey. Pullbacks inside an uptrend are common and can be constructive, especially when volume dries up on the way down.
Why This Cycle Could Be Different
Two ingredients distinguish this cycle. First, silver's industrial role is larger and more persistent than in past bull markets because solar and power electronics are no longer fringe. Second, inventories are thinner after back-to-back deficits. If the gold to silver ratio continues to compress while the industrial call on metal grows, price can move to clear levels that previously looked ambitious. In my work, that is how you get a reasonable path to $70 in the nearer term and $100 to $120 over a longer arc. A stretch scenario that mirrors the magnitude of the last two super-moves points to much higher numbers, but the base case is already compelling.
Structural Deficits: The silver market has now logged several consecutive years of demand exceeding supply, steadily drawing down inventories.
Industrial Pull: Silver is consumed in solar panels, EVs, 5G networks, and medical devices. Once used, it rarely returns to the market.
Monetary Tailwinds: With global central banks pivoting toward easier policy, monetary demand for silver should rise alongside gold.
Investor Psychology: After years of neglect, silver is re-entering the spotlight. That shift in sentiment can be just as powerful as fundamentals.
Equities Positioned for Leverage
Investors who want leverage to the metal often look to quality producers and well-positioned developers.
Below are three juniors that I have written about before and one producer that continues to align with the breakout and match my charts.
Dolly Varden Silver
Dolly Varden Silver Corp. (DV:TSX.V; DVS:NYSEA; DVQ:FSE) remains a go-to pure silver name in the Golden Triangle.
The stock has been pressing against back-price resistance and is now threatening a clean break above the recognition level near CA$4.80.
My technical roadmap:
- Breakout Level: CA$4.80
- First Target: CA$6.50
- Second Target: CA$10.00
- Big Picture Target: CA$20.40
The structure is classic. Multi-year accumulation, higher lows, and expanding volume into resistance. If silver holds above $40, Dolly Varden can move quickly to the first two targets.
I rank Dolly Varden as a Speculative Buy at the current price at the time of this report of CA$6.25
Honey Badger Silver
Honey Badger Silver Inc. (TUF:TSXV; HBEIF:OTCQB) spent years carving a base and has started to resolve higher.
The pattern shows repeated tests of resistance and improving volume.
My working levels:
- First Target: CA$0.25, met
- Second Target: CA$0.45
- Third Target: CA$0.75
- Big Picture Target: CA$1.25
For a junior at this stage, the key is follow-through after the first break. If silver continues its trend, the path to the mid-forties is open, with room beyond on sustained momentum.
I rank Honey Badger as a Speculative Buy at the current price at the time of this report of CA$0.25.
Silver North Resources
Silver North Resources Ltd. (SNAG:TSX.V; TARSF: OTCQB) delivered a clean Point of Recognition near CA$0.18 after multiple failed attempts.
That change in character matters.
The first target at CA$0.32 has been achieved.
The next steps:
- Second Target: 0.43
- Third Target: 0.55
The combination of a higher low, expanding volume, and a decisive break of a long downtrend puts this one on the short list for juniors that can compound percentage gains if the silver tape stays firm.
I rank Silver North as a Speculative Buy at the current price at the time of this report of CA$0.38.
Fortuna Mines
Fortuna Mining Corp. (FSM:NYSE; FVI:TSX; FVI:BVL; F4S:FSE) gives direct operating leverage with diversified mines and cash flow.
The stock cleared a multi-year base and met my first two levels at CA$7.60 and CA$9.50.
The next objectives:
- Third Target: CA$14.30
- Fourth Target: CA$18.25.
As a producer, Fortuna can self-fund growth while still delivering sensitivity to the silver price.
The chart shows steady accumulation and a healthy trend above rising moving averages.
I rank Fortuna Silver as a Speculative Buy at the current price at the time of this report of CA$11.35.
Conclusion
Silver reclaiming $40 confirms that the long base has resolved to the upside. The ratio to gold still sits well above historic norms, supply remains tight, and industrial demand is climbing. That mix has produced powerful cycles in the past.
The near target sits at $50.00 (the old all-time high) and then near $70. The longer path points toward $100 to $120 if the cycle runs.
For equity leverage, we rate the following companies as Speculative Buys at current prices Dolly Varden, Honey Badger, Silver North, and Fortuna. Each offer different ways to express the view, from producer exposure to junior upside.
Remember, silver is volatile. Position sizing and time horizon matter.
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Important Disclosures:
- Dolly Varden and Silver North are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports and pay SWR a monthly sponsorship fee between US$3,000 and US$6,000.
- As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Dolly Varden, Fortuna Mining, and Silver North.
- John Newell: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: None. My company has a financial relationship with: None. My company has purchased stocks mentioned in this article for my management clients: None. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
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John Newell Disclaimer
As always it is important to note that investing in precious metals like silver carries risks, and market conditions can change violently with shock and awe tactics, that we have seen over the past 20 years. Before making any investment decisions, it's advisable consult with a financial advisor if needed. Also the practice of conducting thorough research and to consider your investment goals and risk tolerance.
