Silver When Supply Cant Keep Up and the Chart Keeps Confirming It
Contributed Opinion

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John Newell Disclaimer

As always it is important to note that investing in precious metals like silver carries risks, and market conditions can change violently with shock and awe tactics, that we have seen over the past 20 years. Before making any investment decisions, it's advisable consult with a financial advisor if needed. Also the practice of conducting thorough research and to consider your investment goals and risk tolerance.

I've followed silver for decades, and one thing I've learned the hard way is this: the biggest moves never feel comfortable when they start. They usually look obvious only in hindsight. Right now, silver is doing something rare. The fundamentals and the long-term chart are finally telling the same story.

Let's start with supply and demand, because that's where the quiet pressure is building.

Over the past decade, silver demand has been steadily changing character. This is no longer just a monetary metal or a jewelry story. Industrial demand is now the driver, and it's accelerating. Photovoltaics alone have grown at a pace few people expected even five years ago. Solar panels, electrification, electronics, and grid upgrades all require silver, and there is no practical substitute at scale. According to industry data, silver demand has outpaced supply for several consecutive years, and we're heading into another projected deficit even with modest mine output growth.

That's the key point. Mine supply is not exploding higher. It's struggling to grow at all. Grades are declining, permitting is slower, and capital has been scarce for years. Silver is mostly produced as a byproduct, which means higher prices don't instantly bring on new supply the way people assume. This creates a structural imbalance that doesn't resolve overnight.

Now layer that reality onto the chart.

The long-term silver chart is one of the cleanest I've ever worked with. Over the years, we identified clear upside targets at US$35, US$50, US$72, and US$78. Each one looked ambitious when first projected. Each one has now been met. That matters because markets that respect historical targets tend to respect the next one too.

What stands out today is not just price, but structure. Silver has broken out of a multi-decade base and held those gains through multiple corrections. The fractal behavior is remarkably consistent with prior bull cycles, only this time it's unfolding against a backdrop of persistent physical deficits rather than excess supply.

From a technical standpoint, the next major measured move points toward the US$120 level. That's not a short-term call. It's a big-picture target derived from prior cycles, the magnitude of the base, and the symmetry of past advances. Importantly, it's not an outlier. It sits right in the zone where historical silver bull markets tend to overshoot before eventually correcting.

I'll add a personal note here. I've seen silver disappoint investors many times over the years. Long stretches of sideways action wear people down. That's usually what a long base is designed to do. But when silver finally moves, it tends to move faster and further than most expect. The market doesn't give many second chances once momentum takes hold.

This cycle feels different because the demand is real, visible, and non-financial. Solar panels don't care about sentiment. Power grids don't wait for pullbacks. When physical demand meets constrained supply and a confirmed breakout on a 50-year chart, the odds start to skew heavily in one direction.

Silver doesn't need hype. It already has the math.

The way I see it, the market has checked off every major upside milestone so far. With supply tight, demand growing, and the chart doing exactly what it has done in past bull markets, the next chapter points higher. Much higher.

The US$120 target isn't a prediction. It's a logical extension of everything silver has already proven it can do.

As for stocks to look at, after quietly building momentum through disciplined exploration and strategic partnerships, Silver North Resources Ltd. (SNAG:TSX.V; TARSF:OTCQB) has broken out technically and fundamentally. You can read my full article on them here.

From a technical perspective, the company remains a Speculative Buy, with rising momentum, strong accumulation, and new chart territory in sight.

Price targets are as follows:

• First Target: CA$0.32 Met and exceeded in Q3 2025
• Second Target: CA$0.43 Surpassed in December 2025
• Third Target: CA$0.55 In progress, remains a logical interim extension
• Big Picture Target: CA$1.05 Now active based on the measured move from the multi-year basing structure and Fibonacci extension levels