However, the action in the dollar and silver this week has probably taken the parabolic phase of this C-wave off the table. Rather than the normal sharp spike up it appears that this C-wave is going to end with a more modest move than prior C-waves. That being said, it did last much longer and gain just as much above the prior C-wave top as any other C-wave. So in terms of duration and magnitude this C-wave has fulfilled every expectation.
I've noted in the past that a D-wave is a regression to the mean, a profit-taking event. That regression tends to be most severe when the C-wave ends with a parabolic move—action and reaction.
However, this time it appears there will likely be no parabolic rally to top the C-wave. In that case, the D-wave will probably be milder than prior D-waves. As a point of reference, every D-wave so far has retraced at least 62% of the prior C-wave advance.
Without the parabolic stretch, I think it's likely that the impending D-wave will only retrace roughly 50% of this C-wave. If gold pushes up to a marginal new high slightly above $1,600 (in the weekend report), then it will probably only drop to around $1250 which just happens to mark the upper boundary of last summer’s consolidation zone.
What should follow that is a fairly strong A-wave surge. A-waves usually test but don't break to new highs. At that point, gold will enter a long sideways period to consolidate the massive gains made during this last C-wave. During this period, it will get very tough to make money in the precious metals market.
However, there is still some upside potential once gold puts in the daily cycle low that is trying to form now. Great potential during the D-wave if you know how to use puts and excellent upside potential during the A-wave next fall, before the metals sink into the consolidation doldrums.
This year still has great opportunities left and of course, we still have the next C-wave to look forward to in 2013. That one should make this C-wave look puny in comparison.
Toby Connor
Gold Scents
