At a time when money managers' concerns have swung between record government stimulus and the potential for a new recession, investors remain bullish on commodities that beat stocks and bonds for a second year.
Silver will be the top-performing commodity in 2011, according to a Bloomberg survey of more than 100 investors, traders and analysts. As an investment and an industrial material silver will jump as much as 37% next year, leading gains in the 15 commodities covered in the survey. Zinc, this year's worst- performing metal, will appreciate 21%. Arabica coffee, which reached a 13-year high last week, will be the weakest performer, adding no more than about 7%.
The strength in demand "has been a surprise considering that we've just come out of the worst recession since the 1930s and carnage in most asset classes," said London-based Roxana Mohammadian-Molina, one of a team of 18 analysts at Barclays Capital who correctly called the bottom in oil and copper last year.
Results of the Bloomberg survey found that silver is expected to reach $40 per ounce—the highest of the 15 commodities included in the questionnaire.
Gold was forecast to rise by the second greatest amount, 23%, to $1,700 per ounce, while Arabica coffee is expected to be the worst performer, with only a 7% gain.
Among purely industrial metals, zinc was the top pick, with a 21% estimated gain.
Silver, Gold Top Picks in 2011 Commodity Survey
Source: GoldAlert (12/28/10)
"Silver will be the top-performing commodity in 2011."