Bad Business Good for Gold

Dow Theory Letters (08/24/2010)
"Yesterday, I wrote about the Treasury bonds. Every 'smart' trader and investor has rushed into Treasury bonds as the ultimate safe-haven area. I believe Treasury bonds and high-grade corporate bonds are in a bubble. There are just too many believers in bonds as the ultimate safe place to be.

When everybody piles onto one side of the ship, the ship lists. And just as quickly, everybody rushes to the other side of the ship. That's where I think we are with bonds.

The weekly chart below follows the 30-year T-bond. RSI tells us that the bond is overbought. The full stochastics at the bottom of the chart confirms that the bond is overbought. And the blue histograms are slanting downwards towards zero. All in all, I don't like the looks of the bonds. Any hint of rising interest rates could send the bond market off the edge of the popularity cliff.

$USB 8/23/10

Gold—I took today's stock market selloff as an indication that business will be rotten in the months ahead. Rotten business will put pressure on the Fed to print, print, print. Wide open quantitative easing will put pressure on the dollar, and this, in turn, will put UPWARD pressure on gold. And gold may have started to discount that situation today."

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