Gold Price Performance and Outlook

Real Wealth ReportResource Capital Research (09/30/2009)
"Gold has been generating headlines recently after breaking through the US$1,000/oz level in mid-September. The gold price eased to US$998/oz on September 25, 1.9% below its three-month high (US$1,017/oz on September 16), but up strongly (+9.8%) from the three-month low of US$909/oz seen on July 8.

The 10% rally in the gold price since early July has been driven primarily by a weakening U.S. dollar, but also helped by sporadic headlines regarding future inflationary risks. In the last three months, the U.S. dollar, as measured by the Trade Weighted Index of major trading partners, has fallen by 6%. Equity markets have been rallying strongly (The Morgan Stanley World Index is up 18.9% in the last three months), which suggests that 'crisis-driven' safe haven buying, which was prevalent early in 2009, is not a key driver of the gold price. Gold prices for producers in Australia and Canada have gone nowhere in the last three months due to commodity-linked currency appreciation.

. . .RCR expects gold to trade in the range of US$950/oz to US$1,000/oz in the next six months, supported by ongoing concerns over the U.S. dollar, with the odd dash of inflation fear thrown in. The fundamentals, particularly reduced crisis-driven investment demand, do not suggest the price will sustain the push through US$1,000/oz. We see more risk on the downside towards US$900/oz if equity markets continue to rally. Inflation is not yet real enough to be a sustained driver of gold (this is expected in 2H10)."

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