Top 10 Comments: Royal Gold

Gold Stock Analyst (08/20/2009)
"Royal Gold reported results for FY ended 6/30/09. Gross royalty revs were $73.8 mil and just below GSA's forecast of $75.7 mil. On average shares outstanding of 35.3 mil, that's royalty revs of $2.09/share, which translated to earnings of $1.09 and cash flow of $2.01 per share.

On its continued strong results, the company expects to modestly increase its dividend from current $0.32/shr. RGLD, now around $39, is selling at 18.7X trailing annual royalties/share. We see gross royalties of $100 mil for FY10, or $2.47 on each of the 40.5 mil shares now outstanding. At the 20X cash flow we use for royalty stock target forecasting, that works out to $49 per share. But, the big growth comes in FY11, which begins July 1, 2010.

Penasquito starts hitting its stride for an estimated $20 mil/yr royalty and Andacollo fully online for 40K Au oz to Co, or $36 mil/yr at $900 Gold. These two royals total $56 mil, or $1.38 additional/share. For FY11, GSA sees total royalties of $146 mil, or $3.60/share. Valued at 20X, it calculates to a $72 target price for RGLD but we won't raise our current $66 target until we fully update the company report in several months, when we reach the Royalty Earners."

 PRINT THIS PAGE   EMAIL THIS PAGE

Under SEC rules, analysts are required to disclose their interest in securities that they cover. We strongly encourage you to contact them to understand any potential conflicts of interest they may have.

Related Quotes: